Employment Summary for September 2021
Employment growth in September fell well below consensus estimates with the addition of 194,000 jobs as reported in today’s U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) survey. Job growth, while moderate overall, was positive across most of the key industries measured by the BLS with notable growth in leisure and hospitality and in professional and business services. The unemployment rate declined by 0.4 percentage point to 4.8 percent.
The percent of nonfarm workers reporting that they teleworked at some point in the past four weeks because of the pandemic was 13.2 percent, little changed from the prior three months. This might indicate a new level of “normal” for work-from-home rates.
“Each month talent advisors in our global MRINetwork of 300 search firms look to the BLS analysis for insights into current hiring demand data for skilled executive, professional, technical, and managerial workers. Once again, this month, though not as robust, the demand for talent remains with the arrow pointed north,” said Bert Miller, President and CEO of MRI. “We consult every client to not just react to today’s demand for transformative talent but to look further downrange to ensure they not only understand ‘why’ they are doing well today but to understand ‘how’ they must change their organization over time to ensure healthy sustainability. We ask them to go beyond thinking their business is healthy since there is wind behind their sails and their industry is growing as well. We caution that the cumulative effects of standing still with a status quo viewpoint will at some point, potentially have a negative impact. The message is simple, do not sit still — move forward — innovate or you could be moving backwards. High water hides submerged obstacles. It is essential to have the right talent on your team who recognize where the business is headed and can drive the often-small cumulative changes that will separate their firm from the pack over a sustained period time.”
Wall Street Journal reporter Josh Mitchell summarized the overall jobs report succinctly, “The figures add to evidence that fears about the virus and global supply constraints continue to hold back the economic recovery. The biggest factor behind last month’s weak payroll gain was a decline in public-sector jobs, mainly at schools. Employment in private-sector industries rose by 317,000 in September, with modest gains across several industries. The spread this summer of the Delta variant, a particularly contagious strain of COVID-19, likely spooked would-be job seekers and impeded speedier job growth in September, despite many companies being desperate to hire, economists and business leaders say.”
Adding context to today’s BLS data, Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors noted, “After looking like almost a done deal, today’s jobs number has thrown expectations for (Federal Reserve) tapering into disarray. The Fed doesn’t seem to need much to convince it that tapering should begin imminently, but at just 194,000, jobs numbers are suggesting that the labor market is further from hitting the substantial progress goal than they expected.”
Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 74,000 in September, with continued job growth in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+43,000). Employment in food services and drinking places changed little for the second consecutive month.
Professional and business services added 60,000 jobs in September. Employment continued to increase in architectural and engineering services (+15,000), management and technical consulting services (+15,000), and computer systems design and related services (+9,000).
In September, employment in retail trade rose by 56,000, following 2 months of little change. Over the month, employment gains occurred in clothing and clothing accessories stores (+27,000), general merchandise stores (+16,000), and building material and garden supply stores (+16,000). These gains were partially offset by a loss in food and beverage stores (-12,000).
Moderate growth was seen across a number of sectors. In September, employment in the information industry increased by 32,000, employment in manufacturing increased by 26,000, construction employment rose by 22,000, and wholesale trade jobs increased by 17,000.
In September, employment decreased by 144,000 in local government education and by 17,000 in state government education. Employment changed little in private education (-19,000).
“In our most recently reported month, August 2021, our same-office billings increased almost 70% versus the prior-year period. Additionally, on a year-to-date basis every industry practice has grown significantly versus the same period in 2020 with practices groups like Financial, Healthcare, and Professional Services exceeding 60% growth rates. Our consultants are also looking beyond legacy ‘analog’ talent solutions. Work from anywhere arrangements, or contract placements, now represent a significant factor in our portfolio services as our clients increasingly turning to interim work arrangements to source critical talent,” said Miller.
- The full Bureau of Labor Statistics report can be downloaded here:
Employment Summary for August 2021
Robust growth in the leisure and hospitality industry faltered in August as the Delta variant put pressure on non-farm hiring. Despite that factor, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported an increase in total nonfarm payroll employment of 235,000 jobs. Results were below analyst expectations but in line with some forecasts that had recognized the potential slowdown in leisure and hospitality hiring. The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2 percent.
The percent of nonfarm workers reporting that they teleworked at some point in the past four weeks because of the of the pandemic was little changed from the prior month. In August, 13.4 percent of employed persons reported teleworking, perhaps indicating a new base of the level of work-from-home behavior.
“Demand for talent, particularly transformative talent, continues to drive revenue and placement growth in our global Network of 300 executive search offices. Our consultants recruit top executive, technical, managerial, and professional talent for clients in virtually every industry sector. In our most recently reported month, July 2021, our offices successfully completed almost 50 percent more search assignments versus the same period last year,” said Bert Miller, President and CEO of MRI. “We saw strength in every industry practice area with particular strength in the professional services and financial industry sectors. However, client demand for talent is not only focused on ‘permanent’ positions. Flexible work arrangements, or contract placements, represent a significant factor in our talent solution services. More companies now realize they can get critical work done through both interim and full-time work arrangements.”
As reported by Fox Business, “The variant may have discouraged some Americans from flying, shopping and eating out. Americans have been buying fewer plane tickets and reducing hotel stays. Restaurant dining, after having fully recovered in late June, has declined to about 10% below pre-pandemic levels.”
Additional context to today’s BLS numbers were provided by David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co. “Despite the Delta variant, there is still an opening up of the service sector of the U.S. economy. While that started some months ago, it’s not nearly complete.”
Employment in professional and business services increased by 74,000 in August. Employment rose in architectural and engineering services (+19,000), computer systems design and related services (+10,000), scientific research and development services (+7,000), and office administrative services (+6,000).
Transportation and warehousing added 53,000 jobs in August, bringing employment in the industry slightly above (+22,000) its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Employment gains have been led by strong growth in couriers and messengers and in warehousing and storage, which added 20,000 jobs each in August.
Manufacturing added 37,000 jobs in August, with gains in motor vehicles and parts (+24,000) and fabricated metal products (+7,000).
In other sectors, “other services” industry added 37,000 jobs in August, employment in information increased by 17,000 and employment in financial activities rose by 16,000 over the month, with most of the gain occurring in real estate (+11,000).
Employment in retail trade declined by 29,000 in August, with losses in food and beverage stores (-23,000).
As noted above, in August, employment in leisure and hospitality was unchanged, after increasing by an average of 350,000 per month over the prior six months. In August, employment showed little change in other major industries, including construction, wholesale trade, and healthcare.
“Our Network of talent professionals are meeting client demand for top performers every day. A key message we convey to our clients is to focus on truly brilliant talent at every level of their organization. These performers can be characterized as ‘multipliers,’ the people on a team who can multiply their impact. They don’t wait to be given direction, rather they relish entering the fray immediately. They are high performers who can accomplish an above average work rate and bring others up alongside them. Identifying the attributes takes skill, but there are signs that top interviewers can spot during the hiring process. We help clients surround themselves with these players at every organizational level. In today’s rapidly evolving world of work, multipliers provide a competitive edge,” noted Miller.
Employment Summary for July 2021
For the seventh straight month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a significant increase in total nonfarm payroll employment. In July, jobs increased by 943,000. Results were above analyst expectations as continued wage growth fueled the rate of hiring. The unemployment rate declined by 0.5 percentage point to 5.4
Once again, gains in the leisure and hospitality industry drove much of the expansion as 380,000 new jobs were added with two-thirds of the total increase in food services and drinking places.
“Our global Network of over 300 executive search offices continue to see robust demand for executive, technical, managerial, and professional talent in every industry sector reflecting the powerful hiring demand reported in this month’s BLS employment data. In our most recently reported month, June 2021, our offices successfully completed 87 percent more search assignments versus the same prior-year period,” said Bert Miller, President and CEO of MRI. “Placement of talent in the professional services practice, which more than doubled, was our fastest growing segment, but we saw year-over-year growth exceeding 70% in all of our practice groups. We are guiding our clients to leverage this robust jobs market to select and hire talent with critical thinking skills — an attribute that will drive value throughout their entire enterprise.”
The percent of nonfarm workers reporting that they teleworked at some point in the past four weeks because of the of the pandemic declined for the third consecutive month. In July, 13.2 percent of employed persons reported teleworking, down from 14.4 percent in the prior month indicating continued acceleration in the rate of return to on-site work.
“This not only was a strong jobs report by nearly every measure, it also signals more good things to come,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.
Reporter Eric Morath of The Wall Street Journal provided additional context to today’s BLS numbers. “So far, little evidence suggests that the recent (delta strain) case surge is significantly slowing the U.S. recovery — and the economy has built up a cushion from the availability of vaccines, business reopenings, pent-up consumer demand and aid flowing from multiple rounds of government stimulus legislation.”
In July, employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 380,000. With gains in food services and drinking places (+253,000). Employment also continued to increase in accommodation (+74,000) and in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+53,000).
Employment in July rose by 221,000 in local government education and by 40,000 in private education. Staffing fluctuations in education due to the pandemic have distorted the normal seasonal buildup and layoff patterns, likely contributing to the job gains in July.
Employment in professional and business services rose by 60,000 in July. Within the industry, employment in the professional and technical services component rose by 43,000 over the month and is 121,000 above its pre-pandemic February 2020 level.
Transportation and warehousing added 50,000 jobs in July. Job growth occurred in transit and ground passenger transportation (+19,000), warehousing and storage (+11,000), and couriers and messengers (+8,000). The industry has recovered 92.9 percent of the jobs lost since the onset of the pandemic.
Healthcare added 37,000 jobs in July. Job gains in ambulatory healthcare services (+32,000) and hospitals (+18,000) more than offset a loss of 13,000 jobs in nursing and residential care facilities.
Employment gains in most other sectors grew modestly or were little changed versus June. Employment in manufacturing increased by 27,000 in July, largely in durable goods manufacturing. Jobs in information increased by 24,000 over the month, Employment in financial activities rose by 22,000 over the month, largely in real estate and rental and leasing (+18,000). Employment in retail trade and construction changed little in July, following large increases in the prior two months.
“I see a U.S. economy creating an additional ‘net’ 12 million new jobs by 2025. Many of these roles will be different than today. More repetitive tasks will be performed by technology rather than people; thus employers will need more employees with strong technical skills across multiple disciplines.
Teams will ultimately focus on more value-generating tasks; technology can’t make decisions and solve problems in the same way as a talented performer. Critical thinking skills will be imperative for both teams and leaders,” noted Miller.
Employment Summary for June 2021
Continuing a six month increase in job growth, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) today reported total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 850,000. Results were above analyst expectations as higher wages and incentives to meet growing demand drew more workers back into the labor force. Unemployment rate was little changed at 5.9 percent.
Once again, gains in the leisure and hospitality industry drove much of the expansion as 343,000 new jobs were added in this sector.
“The continuing growth in non-farm payroll as reflected in today’s BLS data is also mirrored in the demand for executive, technical, professional, and managerial talent that our Network of over 300 offices saw throughout June. In our most recently reported month, May 2021, our offices successfully completed almost double the search assignments versus the prior May,” said Bert Miller, President and CEO of MRI. “Highest year-over-year growth was in our financial practice, particularly within banking reflecting demand for professionals to manage investment decisions. We also saw significant growth and demand for industrial automation professionals in our manufacturing practices. In addition, we are seeing an uptick in the percentage of face-to-face interviewing as the talent selection process starts to resemble a return to some form of normalcy or now, a new normalcy.”
In June, 14.4 percent of the nonfarm workforce reported they teleworked at some point in the past 4 weeks because of the of the pandemic. This was down from 16.6 percent in the prior month indicating continued acceleration in the rate of return to on-site work.
“From a market perspective, this was an all-out positive jobs report,” said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. “The improvement today likely reflects a slight easing of the labor supply constraints that have been holding back the jobs market in recent months, as well as continued momentum from the economic reopening.”
Reporter Josh Mitchell of The Wall Street Journal provided additional context to today’s BLS numbers. He noted Sung Won Sohn, an economist at Western Alliance Bancorporation, said demand is rising as consumers, flush with cash from wage growth and government aid programs, are boosting spending on services they put off last year. But supply—mainly, workers—isn’t keeping up.
“Employment gains would be much greater if not for labor shortages,” Mr. Sohn said.
Mr. Sohn thinks those shortages will persist beyond this summer, and perhaps in the medium- and long-term and it could take another year or so for the labor market to fully recover from the pandemic.
In June, employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 343,000, as pandemic-related restrictions continued to ease in some parts of the country. Over half of the job gain was in food services and drinking places (+194,000). Employment also continued to increase in accommodation (+75,000) and in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+74,000).
Employment in professional and business services rose by 72,000 driven primarily by employment in temporary help services (+33,000).
Retail trade added 67,000 jobs in June. Over the month, job growth in clothing and clothing accessories stores (+28,000) and general merchandise stores (+25,000) generated most of the gains.
Employment gains in most other sectors grew modestly or were little changed versus May.
In June, wholesale trade added 21,000 jobs, with gains in both the durable and nondurable goods components. Employment in mining rose by 10,000 in June, reflecting a gain in mining support activities. New positions in manufacturing changed little in June (+15,000).
Employment in transportation and warehousing slightly increased in June (+11,000). Also, little changed were jobs in construction that declined by 7,000 versus May.
In June, employment showed little change in other major industries, including information, financial activities, and healthcare.
“Many clients are focused on bringing talent into their organization who can be transforming and multipliers. Past education and past roles remain important, and candidates who demonstrate and prove their drive toward their ‘intentional north star’ are increasingly in demand. What you do, how you do it, who you positively impact along the way and how you demonstrate a whatever-it-takes mentality is the winning mindset many corporate leaders want to see. Other key attributes are agility, consistency demonstrated during good and bad times, a team-first mentality, open-mindedness and demonstrating leadership regardless of role are some of the intangibles in greatest demand,” noted Miller.
Employment Summary for May 2021
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) today reported total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 559,000, slightly below analyst expectations but continuing a five month increase in job growth. Unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 5.8 percent.
Gains of almost 300,000 jobs in the leisure and hospitality industry drove much of the expansion.
“Our Network offices continue to grow as the U.S. economy expands and our clients’ demand for qualified executive, technical, professional, and managerial talent seems limitless. In our most recently reported month, April 2021, our offices saw almost a doubling of successful search assignments versus the prior April and turned in the strongest overall performance in years,” said Bert Miller, President and CEO of MRI. “Throughout the pandemic our recruitment teams leveraged technology to help clients successfully find and hire great talent through virtual interviews. But it was the promise of a rapid development and roll-out of the U.S. vaccine program, starting as early as October 2020, that supplied clients the added confidence to hire — and candidates the boldness to move from one company to another.”
The BLS reported in May, 16.6 percent of the nonfarm workforce teleworked because of the of the pandemic. This was down from 18.3 percent in the prior month indicating an acceleration in the rate or return to on-site work as the vaccine and relaxed shut-down rules impacted worker behavior.
Economists predict that the labor market won’t fully recover until 2022 despite the current robust demand for workers. “We think it will take several months for frictions in the labor market to work themselves out,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays. “That just means we shouldn’t be expecting one to two million jobs every month. Instead, it will be a more gradual process.”
Providing added detail on what is driving the relatively moderate rate of job recovery, Reuters’ reporter Lucia Mutikani observed, “Government-funded benefits, including a $300 weekly unemployment subsidy, are also constraining hiring. Republican governors in 25 states are terminating this benefit and other unemployment programs funded by the federal government for residents starting next Saturday. These states account for more than 40% of the workforce. The expanded benefits will end in early September across the country. That, together with more people vaccinated and schools fully reopening in the fall, is expected to ease the worker scarcity by September.”
In May, employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 292,000, as pandemic-related restrictions continued to ease in some parts of the country. Nearly two-thirds of the increase was in food services and drinking places (+186,000). Employment also rose in amusements, gambling, and recreation (+58,000) and in accommodation (+35,000).
Healthcare and social assistance added 46,000 jobs in May. Employment in healthcare continued to trend up (+23,000), reflecting a gain in ambulatory healthcare services (+22,000). Social assistance added 23,000 jobs over the month, largely in child day care services (+18,000).
Employment in information rose by 29,000 over the prior month. Reflecting a return to a more normal pattern in the entertainment industry, job gains in May occurred in motion picture and sound recording industries (+14,000).
Manufacturing employment rose by 23,000 in May. A job gain in motor vehicles and parts (+25,000) followed a job loss in April (-38,000).
Transportation and warehousing added 23,000 jobs in May. Employment increased in support activities for transportation (+10,000) and in air transportation (+9,000).
In other key industries, employment in wholesale trade increased by 20,000 in May, mostly in the durable goods. Construction employment edged down in May (-20,000), reflecting a job loss in non-residential specialty trade contractors (-17,000). Employment in professional and business services and retail trade remained relatively flat versus April.
In May, employment changed little in other major industries, including mining, financial activities, and other services.
“When our talent professionals sit down with their C-level clients and ask what’s most important to their company and what’s led to their success, they always say it’s their people. The most astute of these clients never surrendered to a hiring freeze mentality when the downturn began in March 2020. They continued to hire ‘multiplier-capable’ talent to ensure they had the right people in place when the economy would invariably roar back in recovery. Today, clients across the board, in every one of our industry sectors are hiring. Our planning sessions with all of them include the message that the search for top talent transcends virtually any economic downturn,” noted Miller.
Employment Summary for April 2021
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) today reported total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 266,000, continuing a four month increase in job growth but significantly below consensus estimates. Unemployment rate increased slightly to 6.1 percent, well below its April 2020 high of 14.7 percent.
Job growth was led by continued robust expansion in the leisure and hospitality industry.
“Our Network of over 300 executive recruitment firms is seeing record breaking demand for top talent across virtually every industry segment. The vast majority of our offices report client demand for transformative talent at levels not seen since the recovery from the Great Recession,” said Bert Miller, President and CEO of MRI. “Our recruiting professionals reported Network-wide year-over-year revenue increases in excess of 40% in March. We are advising our clients to view this continued growth in job demand as much more than a post-Covid recovery. We urge them to look at the talent marketplace through a new lens, where constant technological innovation, ongoing skilled worker shortages, and unprecedented economic growth fueled by infrastructure and capital investment spending are creating a new world of work that requires new talent solutions.”
The BLS reported 18.3 percent of all non-farm employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, down from 21.0 percent in March. These data likely reflect an acceleration of workers returning to traditional workplaces as schools re-open for onsite education and the vaccine is more widely available.
As noted by Reuters reporter Lucia Mutikani a shortage of workers probably contributed to the muted April results, “U.S. employers hired far few workers than expected in April, likely frustrated by labor shortages, leaving them scrambling to meet booming demand as the economy reopens amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government. From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements, and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages. The moderate pace of hiring could last at least until September when the enhanced unemployment benefits run out.”
Echoing those same sentiments, Wall Street Journal reporters Sarah Cambon and Gwynn Guilford note, “Higher vaccination rates, fiscal stimulus and easing business restrictions are converging to support stronger spending across the U.S. But many businesses are reporting they can’t find enough workers, a phenomenon that could restrain economic growth in the coming months.
In April, employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 331,000, as pandemic-related restrictions continued to ease in many parts of the country. More than half of the increase was in food services and drinking places (+187,000). Job gains also occurred in amusements, gambling, and recreation (+73,000) and in accommodation (+54,000).
Jobs increased by 44,000 in the other services sector and by 31,000 in local government education.
Employment in financial activities rose by 19,000 over the month, with most of the gain occurring in real estate and rental and leasing.
Manufacturing employment edged down in April (-18,000), following total gains of 89,000 in the previous two months.
Employment levels in retail trade, healthcare, construction, and information technology remained virtually unchanged versus the prior month.
“The best and brightest candidates are well aware of the demand for top talent. They are looking for roles at firms with clear, compelling, and verifiable hiring brands. They look for a firm’s commitment to true diversity and inclusion, a corporate hiring brand that values not just a candidate’s skills and flexibility but looks at the emotional intelligence and problem-solving skills that transformative talent can bring to an organization. The new world of work is much more than policies on the optimal design of remote work models and other post-Covid temporary fixes. It is about an unrelenting focus on finding and nurturing top talent,” said Miller.
Employment Summary for March 2021
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) today reported total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 916,000 in March, significantly above consensus estimates. Unemployment rate fell to 6.0 percent, down considerably from its April 2020 high of 14.7 percent.
Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, education and construction.
“The robust recovery of the U.S. labor market continues as reflected in today’s BLS Employment Situation Report. Our Network of over 300 executive recruitment firms is seeing robust growth driven by our clients’ need for transformative talent in this rapidly improving environment,” said Bert Miller, President and CEO of MRI. “Our recruiting professionals reported double digit year-over-year growth in February, with particular strength in the financial, technology and professional services sectors.”
The BLS reported 21.0 percent of all non-farm employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, down from 22.7 percent in February. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked or worked at home for pay at some point in the last four weeks specifically because of the pandemic.
Analysts are anticipating continued job growth acceleration in coming months as the confluence of vaccinations, stimulus spending and pent-up consumer demand power the economy.
“There’s a seismic shift going on in the U.S. economy,” said Beth Ann Bovino, a Ph.D. economist at S&P Global. “The confluence of additional federal stimulus, growing consumer confidence and the feeling that the pandemic is close to abating—despite rising infections in recent weeks—is propelling economic growth and hiring.”
“We were expecting a big number, and today’s jobs report delivered in a major way. It is the flip side of what we saw for March of last year and another clear sign that the U.S. economy is on a strong path to recovery,” said Eric Merlis, head of global markets trading at Citizens Bank.
In March, employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 280,000, as pandemic-related restrictions steadily eased in many parts of the country. Nearly two-thirds of the increase was in food services and drinking places (+176,000). Job gains also occurred in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+64,000) and in accommodation (+40,000).
In March, employment increased in both public and private education, reflecting the continued resumption of in-person learning and other school-related activities. Total jobs increased by 190,000.
Construction added 110,000 jobs in March, following job weather-related losses in the previous month. Employment growth in the industry was widespread in March, with gains of 65,000 in specialty trade contractors, 27,000 in heavy and civil engineering construction, and 18,000 in construction of buildings.
Employment in professional and business services rose by 66,000 over the month. In March, employment in administrative and support services continued to trend up (+37,000). Employment also continued an upward trend in management and technical consulting services (+8,000) and in computer systems design and related services (+6,000).
Manufacturing industry and the transportation and warehousing sectors saw employment growth of 101,000 in March. Of note, since the pre-pandemic month of February 2020, employment in couriers and messengers is up by 206,000 (or 23.3 percent) as consumers opted for at-home delivery of an expanding list of items.
Employment in wholesale trade increased by 24,000 in March, while retail trade added 23,000 jobs.
Financial activities added 16,000 jobs in March. Job gains in insurance carriers and related activities (+11,000) and real estate (+10,000) more than offset losses in credit intermediation and related activities.
Employment in healthcare and information changed little in March.
“The competition for talent is placing demands on clients to ensure their firm is a ‘destination’ for executive, technical, professional and managerial performers who are true multipliers.
“A strong employer brand is critical as job growth momentum accelerates in 2021. We counsel our clients to focus on the substantive elements of core brand strength. It is essential to communicate the firm’s values, goals, and culture, while not getting caught up in a flavor-of-the-month competition on issues like work from home policies.
“In time, the value of face-to-face collaboration will be recognized as a key component of team success. We urge clients to develop comprehensive flexible workforce solutions incorporating best practices from the virtual environment, learned during the pandemic, into a hybrid setup. Clients now have total talent access solutions available to them as they look to regrow their workforce, including both remote-work models and contract staffing solutions that fit into the new world of work,” noted Miller.
Employment Summary for February 2021
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) today reported total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 379,000 in February, significantly above consensus estimates. Unemployment rate fell 6.2% or 10 million unemployed persons.
Most of the job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, with smaller gains in temporary help services, healthcare and social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing.
“We continue to be very encouraged by the recovery of the U.S. labor market as reflected in today’s BLS Employment Situation Report, as well as in the rapid search activity growth we’re seeing in our Network of over 300 executive recruitment offices,” said Bert Miller, President and CEO of MRI. “MRINetwork reported double digit month-over-month growth in January, thanks to major bounce backs across our practices in construction, consumer, healthcare, and more.”
The BLS reported 22.7 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, down from 23.2 percent in January. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked or worked at home for pay at some point in the last four weeks specifically because of the pandemic.
Analysts are growing more optimistic that hiring will continue to accelerate in coming months.
“The labor force will begin a meaningful recovery in mid-2021 as extensive vaccine distribution will push toward herd immunity, reducing health concerns and allowing for a more complete recovery of some hard-hit industries,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
Reflecting a similar tone, Nela Richardson, a Ph.D. economist at human-resources software firm Automatic Data Processing Inc. noted, “As we reopen the economy, inch-by-inch, that will unleash consumer spending and drive job growth, especially industries that have been most severely affected by the pandemic.”
As reported by the BLS, in February, employment in leisure and hospitality increased by a robust 355,000, as pandemic-related restrictions eased in some parts of the country. About four-fifths of the increase was in food services and drinking places (+286,000). Employment also rose in accommodation (+36,000) and in amusements, gambling, and recreation (+33,000).
Within professional and business services, temporary help services added 53,000 jobs in February.
Employment in healthcare and social assistance increased by 46,000 in February. Healthcare employment increased by 20,000, following a large decline in the prior month (-85,000). In February, job gains in ambulatory healthcare services (+29,000) were partially offset by losses in nursing care facilities (-12,000).
Retail trade added 41,000 jobs in February. Job growth was widespread in the industry, with the largest gains occurring in general merchandise stores (+14,000), health and personal care stores (+12,000), and food and beverage stores (+10,000). These gains were partially offset by a loss in clothing and clothing accessories stores (-20,000). The retail sector has added 2 million jobs from May 2020 through February 2021.
Manufacturing employment increased by 21,000 over the month, led by a gain in transportation equipment (+10,000).
In February, employment changed little in other major industries, including wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, and other services.
Employment decreases were noted in local government education (-37,000) and state government education (-32,000).
Severe winter weather across much of the country likely held down employment in construction where jobs fell by 61,000 in February, largely reflecting declines in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-37,000) and heavy and civil engineering construction (-21,000).
Of note, the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised up by 117,000, from the previously reported 49,000 increase in January.
“As job growth momentum accelerates in 2021, we are guiding our clients to develop comprehensive flexible workforce solutions that are not simply a “one-size-fits-all” work from home policy. Instead, we recommend that future models incorporate best practices from the virtual environment into a hybrid setup. We do believe that in time the workforce will largely return to in-person collaboration. In the meantime, we are consulting with our clients on the total talent access solutions available to them as they look to regrow their workforce, including contract staffing solutions that fit into an increasingly flexible world of work,” noted Miller. March 2021
Employment Summary for December 2020
Total nonfarm payroll employment in December declined by 140,000 in December, well below the consensus forecast of a job gain of 45,000. Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7 percent or 10.7 million unemployed persons.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) noted in today’s release that both unemployment measures are much lower than their April highs, but still nearly twice their pre-pandemic levels in February (3.5 percent and 5.7 million, respectively). The decline in payroll employment, as reported by the BLS reflects the recent increase in coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and efforts to contain the pandemic. In December, job losses in leisure and hospitality and in private education were partially offset by gains in professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.
“Today’s BLS Employment Situation report reflects the short-term labor market impact of a resurgent virus and the residual political turmoil following the November elections. However, both drivers seem to be in many of our clients’ rear-view mirrors as they assess their need for transformative talent to drive expected growth in the new year,” said Bert Miller, president and CEO of MRI. “Talent consultants from our Network of over 300 executive recruitment offices continue to see solid demand for executive, technical, professional, and managerial roles particularly in building products and special trades; banking, insurance, and financial services; pharmaceutical; and automotive, chemical, and plastics manufacturing.”
The BLS reported that in December, 23.7 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, up from 21.8 percent in November. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked or worked at home for pay at some point in the last four weeks specifically due to the pandemic. This increasing trend to teleworking is confirmed by MRINetwork recruiters who report many client companies and talented professional workers expect to incorporate some work-from-home days as part of their standard work week schedule as the pandemic eases.
“In some ways, bad news is good news, because it increases the probability for more stimulus,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for US SPDR Business in comments to CNBC. “Investors have convinced themselves this week that given what’s happened in Georgia, given the weakness in the economic data, that more help is on the way. We’re going to get more fiscal help, and it’s likely to happen pretty soon.”
Fox Business reporter Megan Henny noted the key driver of the December data: “The bulk of the losses were concentrated in the hospitality industry, as new restrictions intended to curb the spread of the virus forced bars, restaurants, and hotels to either dramatically scale-back service or close down altogether.”
As reported by the BLS, in December, employment in professional and business services increased by 161,000, with a large gain in temporary help services (+68,000). Job growth also occurred in computer systems design and related services (+20,000), other professional and technical services (+11,000), management of companies and enterprises (+11,000), and business support services (+7,000).
Retail trade added 121,000 jobs in December, with nearly half of the growth occurring in the component of general merchandise stores that includes warehouse clubs and supercenters (+59,000). Job gains also occurred in non-store retailers (+14,000), automobile dealers (+13,000), health and personal care stores (+10,000), and food and beverage stores (+8,000).
Construction added 51,000 jobs in December. Employment rose in residential specialty trade contractors (+14,000) and residential building (+9,000), two industries that have gained back the jobs lost in March and April. In December, employment also increased in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (+18,000) and in heavy and civil engineering construction (+15,000).
Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 47,000 in December, largely in couriers and messengers (+37,000). Employment in couriers and messengers has increased by 222,000 since February. In December, employment also grew in warehousing and storage (+8,000) and in truck transportation (+7,000), while transit and ground passenger transportation lost 9,000 jobs.
In December, healthcare added 39,000 jobs. Employment growth in hospitals (+32,000) and ambulatory healthcare services (+21,000) was partially offset by declines in nursing care facilities (-6,000) and community care facilities for the elderly (-5,000).
Meanwhile, manufacturing employment increased by 38,000, with gains in motor vehicles and parts (+7,000), plastics and rubber products (+7,000), and nonmetallic mineral products (+6,000). By contrast, miscellaneous nondurable goods manufacturing lost 11,000 jobs over the month.
Offsetting these job gains was employment in leisure and hospitality which declined by 498,000, with three-quarters of the decrease in food services and drinking places (-372,000).
Employment also fell in the amusements, gambling, and recreation industry (-92,000) and in the accommodation industry (-24,000).
Employment in private education decreased by 63,000 and government employment declined by 45,000 in December. Employment in the component of local government that excludes education declined by 32,000, and state government education lost 20,000 jobs. Federal government employment increased by 6,000.
Pooja Sriram, U.S. economist at Barclays, in comments to the Wall Street Journal, added, “It’s reasonably hopeful this will be a one-off rough patch and we’ll recover from there.”
“We are urging our clients around the world to remain focused on the underlying strength of an economy poised for a comeback as COVID-19 vaccines are widely distributed and consumer spending and capital investment grow,” said Bert Miller. “I have been in the talent access space for over 25 years and in numerous business cycles have witnessed the dangers of being circumstantially reactive. Prioritizing actions to address our immediate pain causes us to lose focus on our organizations’ greater missions. We urge clients and top talent to remain focused on their long-term objectives and avoid over-indexing on today’s immediate circumstances. It can be the difference between a company thriving and declining; an accelerating career track or a career stuck in the past.
Employment Summary for November 2020
The U.S. economy added 245,000 non-farm jobs in November, below the 410,000-job growth forecast by economists. The unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent. While November is the seventh consecutive month of both job growth and unemployment rate improvement, the pace of that improvement has moderated reflecting the ongoing coronavirus and efforts to contain it.
However, as noted by Wall Street Journal reporter Sarah Chaney Jones, current vaccine rollout plans will be a factor in future job growth, “The labor-market recovery from the pandemic’s job destruction this spring has been stronger than most economists forecast. Many expect widespread vaccine distribution to eventually help lift the economy as businesses are allowed to reopen and consumers feel more comfortable traveling, going to the movies and returning to other in-person activities involving proximity to other people.”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in November, notable job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, and healthcare. Employment declined in government and retail trade.
“With this month’s BLS Employment Situation report, the economy is once again reflecting a broad-based underlying optimism bolstered by recent COVID-19 vaccine announcements,” said Bert Miller, president and CEO of MRI. “Members of our Network of over 300 executive recruitment offices sense a building momentum particularly in sectors like healthcare, construction, financial services, and professional services as client firms intensify their search efforts for the top executive, technical, professional, and managerial talent who will lead the evolution of their business models into 2021.”
The BLS reported in November, 21.8 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, up from 21.2 percent in October. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked or worked at home for pay at some point in the last four weeks specifically because of the pandemic.
Commenting on the November report, Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at The Wells Fargo Investment Institute noted, “While disappointing, this news should be somewhat offset by the increasing odds of another fiscal stimulus package, and a Fed that stands ready and willing to do more to help the economy.”
Looking to future months, David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co. provided an additional optimistic outlook, “As infection rates go down, as the number of people vaccinated goes up, then we’ll start to see … business activity expand at a faster rate, and we will see the employment numbers pick up more strongly.”
As reported by the BLS, employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 145,000 in November. Employment rose by 82,000 in couriers and messengers and by 37,000 in warehousing and storage; since February, employment in these industries has increased by 182,000 and 97,000, respectively. Job growth also occurred over the month in truck transportation (+13,000).
In November, employment in professional and business services increased by 60,000, with about half the gain occurring in temporary help services (+32,000). Job growth also occurred in services to buildings and dwellings (+14,000).
Healthcare added 46,000 jobs in November, with gains occurring in offices of physicians (+21,000), home healthcare services (+13,000), and offices of other health practitioners (+8,000). Nursing care facilities continued to lose jobs (-12,000). Overall, there are 527,000 fewer healthcare jobs than February.
Construction gained 27,000 jobs in November. Employment rose in residential specialty trade contractors (+14,000) and in heavy and civil engineering construction (+10,000).
In November, manufacturing employment increased by 27,000. Job gains occurred in motor vehicles and parts (+15,000) and in plastics and rubber products (+5,000).
Financial activities added 15,000 jobs in November. Gains occurred in real estate (+10,000) and in nondepository credit intermediation (+8,000). Financial activities have added 164,000 jobs over the past 7 months, but employment in the industry is 115,000 lower than in February.
Employment in wholesale trade continued to trend up in November (+10,000). Government employment declined for the third consecutive month, decreasing by 99,000 in November.
Employment in leisure and hospitality changed little in November (+31,000) but is down by 3.4 million since February. Arts, entertainment, and recreation added 43,000 jobs in November, while employment in food services and drinking places changed little (-17,000). Employment in other major industries, including mining, information, and other services, also showed little change in November.
“Our Network members are continuing to see client organizations invest boldly in growth, as they work to avoid the dangers of recency bias. We are helping our clients ensure they don’t over-index on the most recent global events to guide their decisions, but instead remain committed to objectively evaluating the full picture and focusing on what has historically driven economic vitality: great talent,” said Miller
Employment Summary for September 2020
The U.S. economy added 661,000 non-farm jobs in September, below the 800,000 job growth expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. While millions remain unemployed, September’s activity means that approximately 12 million jobs have been recovered since the mid-March economic shutdown that saw about 22 million layoffs. September marks the first month since April that net hiring was below 1 million. Unemployment at 7.9% is now in line with previous recessions.
“Our Network of over 325 executive recruitment offices remains cautiously optimistic about the job growth reflected in today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics,” said Bert Miller, president and CEO of MRINetwork. “Technical, managerial, and executive talent is in peak demand across a range of industries including construction, financial services, and healthcare. We’ve also seen a recent lift in legal and security tech opportunities. Across sectors, organizations are looking for leaders capable of thriving in, and in many cases driving, a culture adaptable to the present changing business and political environment.”
The BLS reported total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 661,000 in September, and the unemployment rate declined to 7.9 percent. The number of unemployed persons fell by 1.0 million to 12.6 million. Both measures have declined for 5 consecutive months but are higher than in February, by 4.4 percentage points and 6.8 million, respectively.
“These data are consistent with a labor market that is rebounding, albeit at a slower pace than a few months ago, which should be enough to support consumers and consumption,” said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo in comments to Fox Business. “While risks remain, such as election and COVID-19-related uncertainty, we believe investors should continue to remain fully invested.”
In September, 22.7 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the pandemic, down from 24.3 percent in August, perhaps reflecting a trend of employers opening places of work as commuting restrictions were eased.
According to the BLS, these improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the pandemic and efforts to contain it. In September, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in retail trade, in healthcare and social assistance, and in professional and business services. Employment in government declined over the month, mainly in state and local government education.
CNBC reported that while the third quarter is likely to see unprecedented growth in GDP after the historically sharp slowdown in Q2, “weekly jobless claims are still too high to call the recession over,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist for MUFG Union Bank.
As reported by the BLS, employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 318,000 in September, with almost two-thirds of the gain occurring in food services and drinking places (+200,000). Amusements, gambling, and recreation (+69,000) and accommodation (+51,000) also added jobs in September.
Retail trade added 142,000 jobs over the month, with gains widespread in the industry. Clothing and clothing accessories stores (+40,000) accounted for about one-fourth of the over-the-month change in retail trade. Notable employment increases also occurred in general merchandise stores (+20,000), motor vehicle and parts dealers (+16,000), and health and personal care stores (+16,000). Employment in retail trade is 483,000 lower than in February.
Employment in healthcare and social assistance rose by 108,000 in September, down by 1.0 million since February. Healthcare added 53,000 jobs in September, with continued growth in offices of physicians (+18,000), home healthcare services (+16,000), and offices of other health practitioners (+14,000). Social assistance added 55,000 jobs, mostly in individual and family services (+32,000) and in child day care services (+18,000).
Professional and business services added 89,000 jobs in September. Employment increased in services to buildings and dwellings (+22,000), architectural and engineering services (+13,000), and computer systems design and related services (+12,000), representing gains of 910,000 since April.
Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 74,000 in September. Within the industry, job gains continued in warehousing and storage (+32,000), transit and ground passenger transportation (+21,000), and couriers and messengers (+10,000). The industry has added 291,000 jobs since May; employment in transportation and warehousing is 304,000 lower than in February.
Among other sectors where MRINetwork offices provide executive recruitment services:
• Manufacturing added 66,000 jobs over the month. Durable goods accounted for about two-thirds of the gain, led by motor vehicles and parts (+14,000) and machinery (+14,000).
- Financial activities added 37,000 jobs in September. Job growth occurred in real estate and rental and leasing (+20,000) and in finance and insurance (+16,000).
- Employment in information grew by 27,000 in September.
- Construction employment increased by 26,000 in September, with growth in residential specialty trade contractors (+16,000) and construction of buildings (+12,000).
Government employment declined by 216,000 in September. Employment in local government education and state government education fell by 231,000 and 49,000, respectively. A decrease of 34,000 in federal government was driven by a decline in the number of temporary Census 2020 workers. Partially offsetting these declines, employment in local government, excluding education, rose by 96,000.
“Today’s resilient leaders must strive to navigate uncertainty, promote flexibility, and shift organizational priorities in order to build a solid foundation for the new world of work. This is a good time to recall the words of naturalist Charles Darwin that ‘it is not the strongest of the species that will survive, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change,’” said Miller.
Employment Summary for August 2020
Showing signs that the U.S. economy is settling in for a slow and steady recovery after a three month stretch of a rapid rebound, the U.S. economy added 1.4 million non-farm jobs in August and unemployment fell to 8.4 percent in U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data reported today. The job growth slightly exceeded economist forecasts and represents a solid gain but the smallest in four months.
“Today’s report reinforces the cautious optimism our Network of over 325 executive recruitment offices have about ongoing demand for top talent through the balance of 2020,” said Bert Miller, president and CEO of MRINetwork. “The positive momentum in U.S. job creation reinforces our Network’s decision to invest in the digital tools and education that talent advisory and search firms need in the changing world of work to accelerate growth in their businesses.”
The BLS reported total non-farm employment rose by 1.4 million in August, and the number of unemployed persons fell by 2.8 million to 13.6 million. Both measures have declined for four consecutive months but are higher than pre-virus February by 4.9 percentage points and 7.8 million, respectively. The labor force participation rate increased by 0.3 percentage point to 61.7 percent in August,1.7 percentage points below the February period.
“We are still moving in the right direction and the pace of the jobs recovery seems to have picked up, but it still looks like it will take a while – and likely a vaccine – before we get back close to where we were at the beginning of this year,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Bank in comments to Fox Business.
In August, 24.3 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus, down from 26.4 percent in July indicating an uptick in the rate of return to a workplace environment.
According to the BLS, notable job gains in August included government employment, largely reflecting temporary hiring for the 2020 Census. Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, in professional and business services, in leisure and hospitality, and in education and health services.
“Employment growth is still set to lag the recovery in broader economic activity over the coming months given its greater exposure to the services sectors worst affected by the pandemic,” noted Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics in comments to CNBC. “Nevertheless, the August data illustrate that, despite the earlier surge in virus cases and more recent fading of fiscal support, the recovery continues to plow on.”
Employment in government increased by 344,000 in August, accounting for one-fourth of the over-the-month gain in total nonfarm employment. Job gains in federal government (+251,000) reflected the hiring of 238,000 temporary 2020 Census workers. Local government employment rose by 95,000 over the month. Overall, government employment is 831,000 below its February level.
Retail trade added 249,000 jobs in August, with almost half the growth occurring in general merchandise stores (+116,000). Notable gains also occurred in motor vehicle and parts dealers (+22,000), electronics and appliance stores (+21,000), and miscellaneous store retailers (+17,000).
In August, employment in professional and business services increased by 197,000. More than half of the gain occurred in temporary help services (+107,000). Architectural and engineering services (+14,000), business support services (+13,000), and computer systems design and related services (+13,000) also added jobs over the month. Employment in professional and business services is 1.5 million below its February level.
Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 174,000 in August, with about three-fourths of the gain occurring in food services and drinking places (+134,000). Despite job gains totaling 3.6 million over the last 4 months, employment in food services and drinking places is down by 2.5 million since February as coronavirus restrictions mandate limits on facility capacity.
In August, employment in education and health services increased by 147,000 but is 1.5 million below February’s level. Healthcare employment increased by 75,000 over the month, with gains in offices of physicians (+27,000), offices of dentists (+22,000), hospitals (+14,000), and home healthcare services (+12,000). Elsewhere in healthcare, job losses continued in nursing and residential care facilities (-14,000). Employment in private education rose by 57,000 over the month.
Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 78,000 in August, with gains in warehousing and storage (+34,000), transit and ground passenger transportation (+11,000), and truck transportation (+10,000). Employment in transportation and warehousing is down by 381,000 since February.
Financial activities added 36,000 jobs in August, with most of the growth in real estate and rental and leasing (+23,000).
Employment Summary for July 2020
Despite recent COVID-19 spikes the U.S. economy added 1.8 million jobs and unemployment fell to 10.2 percent providing support to the optimism reflected in the continued financial market rally. Economist forecasts had anticipated a weaker rebound with an addition of about 1.4 million jobs. Instead the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported stronger recovery associated with continued resumption of economic activity.
“The world of work may look different as we emerge from the pandemic,” said President and CEO of Management Recruiters International (MRI) Bert Miller, “but the fundamental demand for highly qualified people to reinvigorate the economy and provide the goods and services we all need will be higher than ever. We continue to see talent needs as our global Network of recruiters respond to our clients in the executive, professional and technical sectors. We anticipate even higher activity as effective virus treatments become a reality. Skilled American workers have always been and will continue to be the driving force behind our recovery.”
The BLS reported total non-farm employment rose by 1.8 million in July, and the number of unemployed persons fell by 1.4 million to 16.3 million. For the first time since the pandemic-driven shutdown of the economy, unemployment for a large segment of the non-farm payroll — adult men — fell below the 10 percent barrier at 9.4 percent.
According to the BLS notable job gains in July occurred in leisure and hospitality, government, retail trade, professional and business services, other services, and health care. The BLS also noted that the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) declined by 619,000 to 8.4 million in July, reflecting a decline almost 700,000 in the number of people whose hours were cut due to slack work or business conditions.
“What the data continues to tell me is that we’re making progress from the pain that was most acute back in March and April. So we continue to have this recovery, but it’s uneven,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for the U.S. SPDR business at State Street Global Advisors in comments to CNBC. “We still have a lot of wood to chop here, but we’re moving in the right direction.”
“We have seen a very troubling increase in COVID-19 cases in many states that had reopened for business, but we continue to be cautiously optimistic that the overall U.S. economy has turned a corner, and that the solid job gains announced today will be sustained,” said Tony Bedikian, managing director of Citizens Bank in an interview with Fox Business.
Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 592,000, accounting for about one-third of the gain in total nonfarm employment in July. Employment in food services and drinking
places rose by 502,000, following gains of 2.9 million in May and June combined. Over the month, employment also rose in amusements, gambling, and recreation (+100,000).
A July job gain in federal government (+27,000) reflected the hiring of temporary workers for the 2020 Census.
In July, retail trade added 258,000 jobs. Employment in the industry is 913,000 lower than in February. In July, nearly half of the job gain in retail trade occurred in clothing and clothing accessories stores (+121,000). By contrast, the component of general merchandise
stores that includes warehouse clubs and supercenters lost jobs (-64,000) following robust gains in recent months.
Employment in professional and business services increased in July (+170,000). Most of the July gain occurred in temporary help services (+144,000).
Health care added 126,000 jobs, with employment growth in offices of dentists (+45,000), hospitals (+27,000), offices of physicians (+26,000), and home health care services (+16,000). Job losses continued in nursing and residential care facilities (-28,000).
Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 38,000 in July, following an increase of 87,000 in June. In July, employment rose in transit and ground passenger transportation (+20,000), air transportation (+16,000), and couriers and messengers (+9,000).
Manufacturing employment increased by 26,000 in July. An employment gain in motor vehicles and parts (+39,000) was partially offset by losses in fabricated metal products (-11,000),
machinery (-7,000), and computer and electronic products (-6,000). Manufacturing has added 623,000 jobs over the past 3 months.
Financial activities added 21,000 jobs in July, with most of the gain in real estate and rental and leasing (+15,000).
Employment Summary for May 2020
The financial market rally in recent weeks proved to be prescient as the U.S. jobless rate fell to 13.3%, and payrolls rose by 2.5 million, suggesting jobs are rapidly returning the coronavirus-hobbled economy.
“Our Network managers, in almost 400 executive recruitment offices, anticipate upticks in sequential professional, technical, executive and managerial hiring demand in the second half 2020 that might indicate continued steps in a positive return towards recovery,” said Bert Miller, president and CEO of MRINetwork.
The mandated shutdown of a large segment of the U.S. economy, to reduce the spread of the coronavirus, had been expected to result in significantly higher unemployment levels. Economist forecasts had called for a decline of 7.5 million in May payrolls and a jump in the unemployment rate to 19%. Instead the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shocked many experts. Over the next days and weeks analysts will be exploring impacts of initiatives like the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) to help explain the unexpected improvement which wasn’t limited to the U.S. figures. North of the border, Canadian employment rose 290,000 in May, compared with forecasts of a 500,000 slump, its statistics office reported.
The BLS reported total non-farm employment rose by 2.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate declined by 1.4% to 13.3%. The total number of unemployed persons fell by 2.1 million to 21.0 million workers. When viewed versus data in the pre-coronavirus period, the number of unemployed persons is up by 9.8 percentage points and 15.2 million, respectively since February.
“Barring a second surge of Covid-19, the overall U.S. economy may have turned a corner, as evidenced by the surprise job gains today, even though it still remains to be seen exactly what the new normal will look like,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Bank, reported Fox Business.
“May was this transition month. The layoffs were very high, but in the latter part of the month, rehiring started. This employment report is probably the peak of the disaster in the labor market,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America, reported CNBC.
According to the BLS, large employment increases occurred in May in leisure and hospitality, construction, education and health services, and retail trade. Government employment continued to decline sharply.
Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 1.2 million, following losses of 7.5 million in April and 743,000 in March. Over the month, employment in food services and drinking places rose by 1.4 million, accounting for about half of the gain in total nonfarm employment. Construction employment increased by 464,000 in May, gaining back almost half of April’s decline (-995,000).
Employment increased by 424,000 in education and health services in May, after a dramatic decrease of 2.6 million in April. Healthcare employment increased by 312,000 over the month, with gains in offices of dentists (+245,000), offices of other health practitioners (+73,000), and offices of physicians (+51,000). Elsewhere in healthcare, job losses continued in nursing and residential care facilities (-37,000) and hospitals (-27,000).
In May, employment in retail trade rose by 368,000, after a loss of 2.3 million in April. Over-the-month job gains occurred in clothing and clothing accessories stores (+95,000), automobile dealers (+85,000), and general merchandise stores (+84,000). By contrast, job losses continued in electronics and appliance stores (-95,000) and in auto parts, accessories, and tire stores (-36,000).
Professional and business services added 127,000 jobs in May, after shedding 2.2 million jobs in April. Over the month, employment rose in services to buildings and dwellings (+68,000) and temporary help services (+39,000), while employment declined in management of companies and enterprises (-22,000).
Financial activities added 33,000 jobs over the month, following a loss of 264,000 jobs in April. In May, employment gains occurred in real estate and rental and leasing (+24,000) and in credit intermediation and related activities (+7,000).
In May, employment continued to decline in government (-585,000), following a drop of 963,000 in April. Employment in local government was down by 487,000 in May. Local government education accounted for almost two-thirds of the decrease (-310,000), reflecting school closures.
n that the economy cannot possibly get any worse than it is right now.”
Employment Summary for March 2020
It should come as little surprise to anyone who in past months has patronized a restaurant, shopped at a mall or commuted to work that the March Bureau of Labor Statistics data reflected a shutdown of vast swaths of the U.S. economy.
In fact, the U.S. employment plunged for the first time since 2010 as payrolls across industries fell by 701,000 mainly due to the coronavirus pandemic that has forced the United States government to mandate shutdowns in a bid to keep people safe. Economists, meanwhile, forecast a decline of just 100,000 roles in weeks prior.
“The jobless rate jumped to 4.4% — the highest since 2017 — from a half-century low of 3.5%, and is expected to surge above 10% in the coming months,” according to Bloomberg News.
Notably, the number of those who are unemployed in the U.S. rose from 1.4 million to 7.1 million in March. And the unemployment rate increase of 0.9% in February was the “largest over-the-month increase in the rate since January 1975, when the increase was also 0.9 percentage point.”
“The abruptness with which the economy has taken this step down is so striking,” FS Investments Chief U.S. Economist Lara Rhame said in an interview with Bloomberg. “It’s like a hurricane but hitting the entire country at the exact same time.”
In terms of specific industries affected most by the coronavirus, the BLS data shows that roles in leisure and hospitality fell by 459,000. There were declines too in healthcare and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.
“Most of the decline occurred in food services and drinking places (-417,000),” according to the BLS data. Notably, the decline actually offset gains from over the last two years.
In terms of other industries, employment in healthcare fell by 61,000, according to the report, “with job losses in offices of dentists (-17,000), offices of physicians (-12,000), and offices of other healthcare practitioners (-7,000).”
Additionally, the professional and businesses services field saw a loss of 52,000 jobs, retail trade roles declined by 46,000, and construction fell by 29,000 roles. There was little chance in employment for a number of industries in March, including wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and financial activities, changed little over the month.
“Federal government employment rose by 18,000 in March, reflecting the hiring of 17,000 workers for the 2020 Census,” according to the BLS data.
“My sense is that when we get April data a month from now, we’ll see that the economy lost somewhere between 10 and 15 million jobs,” according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, in an interview with CNBC. “That would be consistent with the initial claims for unemployment insurance data that we’re getting.”
Employment Summary for February 2020
February was a big month for hiring, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics report. In fact, employment had such a strong surge that the U.S. posted the best jobs numbers since May 2018, according to Bloomberg.
“Payrolls rose 273,000 after the prior month was revised up to also reflect a 273,000 gain, according to Labor Department data Friday that beat all forecasts in Bloomberg’s survey calling for 175,000. The jobless rate fell back to a half-century low of 3.5% as average hourly earnings climbed a steady 3% from a year earlier,” according to the publication.
As CNBC noted, meanwhile, the figures overall have been strong in recent months as well so this jobs report is following a welcome trend for employment: “The previous two months’ estimates were revised higher by a total of 85,000. December moved up from 147,000 to 184,000, while January went from 225,000 to 273,000. Those revisions brought the three-month average up to a robust 243,000 while the average monthly gain in 2019 was 178,000.”
“An important piece of good news here is that while we face these extraordinary uncertainties — and I think that’s going to continue throughout most of 2020 — our economy coming into this was much more resilient than say Germany or Japan,” Lara Rhame, chief U.S. economist for FS Investments, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
Despite the strong jobs figures, however, the Federal Reserve warned that there could be economic disruption due to the coronavirus in the coming months. “Such a risk to economic activity spurred the central bank to cut interest rates Tuesday in the first emergency move since the 2008 financial crisis,” according to Bloomberg.
Notably, after the rate cut announcement, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said: “The fundamentals of the economy remain strong,” citing the low unemployment rate, solid pace of job gains and steady wage increases. “Still, Treasury yields have continued to plunge on signs the virus is spreading uncontained,” as noted by Bloomberg.
In terms of other important figures in the jobs report, hourly earnings rose 0.3% from the prior month. “The report reflected a second-straight month of robust government hiring, which rose by 45,000 after a 51,000 gain in January, owing to employment at state and local governments,” according to Bloomberg.
Construction employment rose by 42,000 which comes on the heels of a 49,000 rise in January. However, retailers and wholesalers employment declined. “Weekly hours worked rose to 34.4 hours from 34.3 in January. Economists look to hours worked for labor-market warning signs as companies often cut hours before laying off workers,” according to Bloomberg.
Employment Summary for January 2020
In the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation report, the U.S. saw employment rise by 225,000 in January, while unemployment remained about the same at 3.6%.
The numbers show that “U.S. employers ramped up hiring in January and wage gains rebounded, providing fresh evidence of a durable jobs market that backs the Federal Reserve’s decision to stop cutting interest rates and hands President Donald Trump an early election-year boost,” according to Bloomberg.
Notably, there were strong gains in a number of industries during January, according to the report, including construction, healthcare and transportation and warehousing.
Along with the strong job gains and a low unemployment rate, the numbers beat estimates for growth in January, according to the news publication. “Payrolls increased by 225,000 after an upwardly revised 147,000 gain in December, according to a Labor Department data Friday that topped all estimates of economists. The jobless rate edged up to 3.6%, still near a half-century low, while average hourly earnings climbed 3.1% from a year earlier.” In advance of the report, business experts anticipated a lower total of around 150,000 jobs, suggesting that a slowdown was inevitable given the economy’s long expansion. January was the 112th straight month of job growth since 2010.
“The report is unambiguously good,” said Ed Campbell, portfolio manager at QMA, in an interview with CNBC. “Strong growth and decent but not runaway wage growth should be good for stocks. Of course, we’ve had such a strong week, the markets are taking this in stride given how much we’ve been up so far.”
Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics provided a breakdown of the major worker groups by gender and ethnicity. “Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.3 percent), adult women (3.2 percent), teenagers (12.2 percent), Whites (3.1 percent), Blacks (6.0 percent), Asians (3.0 percent), and Hispanics (4.3 percent) showed little or no change over the month.”
Year over year, the job gains in January 2020 were much higher than in 2019 when 175,000 employees joined the workforce. In December, women outnumbered men in the workforce for just the second time in history. That number was mostly unchanged in January, with women continuing to make up just over 50 percent of employees.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics broke down the growth by industry: First, the construction industry saw a strong employment boost for the month with employment rising by 44,000. “Most of the gain occurred in specialty trade contractors, with increases in both the residential (+18,000) and nonresidential (+17,000) components. Construction added an average of 12,000 jobs per month in 2019,” as noted by the data. Interestingly, Bloomberg mentioned that the gains in the construction industry were in part due to the “unseasonably warm month.”
Second, the healthcare industry also experienced strong numbers for the month, adding 36,000 jobs. It’s been a strong year too: “Healthcare has added 361,000 jobs over the past 12 months,” according to BLS data.
Finally, transportation and warehousing saw increases for January 2020, with numbers up by 28,000. “Job gains occurred in couriers and messengers (+14,000) and in warehousing and storage (+6,000). Over the year, employment in transportation and warehousing has increased by 106,000,” as noted by the data.
Employment Summary for December 2019
In the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest report, the manufacturing industry took a hit in the number of jobs available for U.S. workers. In fact, the industry lost 12,000 jobs in December and increased by only 46,000 over the course of the year, according to CNBC. That’s compared to a net increase of 264,000 in 2018.
Overall, there are plenty of jobs in the industry still available, however. In fact, “There were still 477,000 open positions as of October, down less than 5% from the year-ago level, according to the Labor Department’s most recent data,” as explained by CNBC. The publication goes on to suggest that companies are having a difficult time filling positions due to a combination of a skills gap as well as the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.
“Until we have a better-trained, more-skilled workforce, which is not really out there, you’re going to have a lot of these positions open. It’s a challenge,” said Steve Rosen, CEO of Resilience Capital Partners, in an interview with CNBC. “There are job openings, and they are very tough to fill.”
Notably, this comes as the unemployment rate overall held at 3.5 percent, meaning that just 5.8 million people in the U.S. were without a job in December. “A year earlier, the jobless rate was 3.9 percent, and the number of unemployed persons was 6.3 million,” according to BLS data.
In terms of major worker groups and their employment rates, the BLS stated the following: “The unemployment rates for adult men (3.1 percent), adult women (3.2 percent), teenagers (12.6 percent), Whites (3.2 percent), Blacks (5.9 percent), Asians (2.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.2 percent) showed little or no change in December.”
Overall, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 145,000 in December with the most notable gains coming in retail and health care, according to the BLS data. For the year, “payroll employment rose by 2.1 million, down from a gain of 2.7 million in 2018.”
More specifically, retail trade added 41,000 jobs and “employment increased in clothing and accessories stores (+33,000) and in building material and garden supply stores (+7,000).”
For the health care industry, the field saw a 28,000 boost in December. “Ambulatory health care services and hospitals added jobs over the month (+23,000 and +9,000, respectively).” For the year, the industry added 399,000 jobs, which was higher than the increase of 350,000 in 2018.”
Other industries such as transportation, information, finance and government saw little changes in employment for the month, according to BLS data.
Interest rates are likely to remain the same as a result of this most recent jobs data, according to Bloomberg. “Federal Reserve policy makers are likely to keep holding interest rates steady after cutting three times in 2019 to insure against risks from trade-policy uncertainty and sluggish global growth, though further weakness could raise concerns about the durability of the record-long U.S. expansion,” as noted by the publication.
Employment Summary for November 2019
U.S. jobs gains beat estimates by a wide margin in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as payrolls increased by 266,000 for the month. In doing so, unemployment matched a historic, 50-year low and the percentage of those without jobs in the U.S. stayed the same at 3.5%.
The increase in jobs was the most since January, according to Bloomberg , and beat estimates by a wide margin. In fact, the news publication said that the 266,000 figure topped estimates of just 180,000 and proved much higher than the October job gains of 156,000. The BLS also revised new job totals in October to 156,000 from 128,000. September’s gain was raised to 193,000 from 180,000. Wage growth also continued to advance. Average hourly earnings in November went up by seven cents, which annualizes to wage growth of 3.1%, well ahead of inflation.
One reason for the strong job growth? “It was the first full month that General Motors Co. workers returned to work after a 40-day strike, adding 41,300 to automaker payrolls following a similar drop the prior month,” according to Bloomberg.
As a result of the tremendous job gains, it’s likely that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady for the month
According to MarketWatch, “Over the past three months, the economy had added an average of 205,000 new jobs a month. That’s down from a 223,000 average in 2018, but still quite vigorous more than a decade into an economic recovery.”
However, the publication noted that these strong jobs numbers may not be as regular an occurrence next year. “Most economists don’t think it can last, though. The slowing economy has caused some companies to scale back hiring while skilled and even unskilled labor has become hard to find in the tightest labor market in decades. Many firms say they have had to leave positions unfilled because of a lack of talent,” the publication notes.
When looking at major worker groups, the unemployment rates stayed mostly the same across the board, as noted by the data. “The unemployment rates for adult men (3.2 percent), adult women (3.2 percent), teenagers (12.0 percent), Whites (3.2 percent), Blacks (5.5 percent), Asians (2.6 percent), and Hispanics (4.2 percent) showed little or no change in November,” according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Meanwhile, when looking at specific industries that saw the most job growth, BLS data showed that the healthcare industry, professional and technical services industry and manufacturing industry saw notable gains for the month. For example, November saw an increase of 45,000 jobs within the healthcare industry. “The November job gains occurred in ambulatory healthcare services (+34,000) and in hospitals (+10,000). Healthcare has added 414,000 jobs over the last 12 months,” according to the BLS report.
The leisure and hospitality field also saw an increase with 45,000 jobs added in November, while the manufacturing industry saw a 41,000 boost as noted above.
However, CNBC notes that the news was not all rosy for all industries and for job gains. “As the holiday shopping season accelerated, retail companies added just 2,000 net hires as gains in general merchandise of 22,000 and motor vehicle and parts dealers of 8,000 were offset by an 18,000 loss in clothing and clothing accessories,” according to the publication. Mining also saw a decrease of 7,000 jobs over the last 30 days.
Overall, the job numbers proved surprising as concerns had been growing that the labor market was starting to slow down. “It’s a significant surprise because economists were ready to go with the idea that payroll growth was slowing down because the job market had gotten tight,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont, in an interview with Bloomberg. “The whole tenor has changed in terms of job growth. We’re back at steady-as-she-goes at a robust pace.”
Employment Summary for October 2019
The Employment Situation report for October showed a total nonfarm payroll employment rise of 128,000 jobs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ most recent data. Notably, the unemployment rate for the month did not change much over the last 30 days, coming in at 3.6%. This is compared to an increase of 136,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 3.5%, according to the September BLS report.
“U.S. hiring was unexpectedly resilient in October and prior months saw sharp upward revisions, offering hope that the labor market can propel consumers to keep spending and extend the record-long expansion despite weak business investment and trade tensions. Stock futures and the dollar rose while Treasuries dropped,” according to Bloomberg.
As CNBC claimed, October job creation easily beat other estimates despite the GM strike. “Nonfarm payrolls rose by 128,000 in October as the U.S. economy overcame the weight of the GM autoworkers’ strike and created jobs at a pace well above expectations. Even with a decline of 42,000 in the motor vehicles and parts industry, the pace of new jobs well exceeded the estimate of 75,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones,” according to the publication.
Additionally, CNBC stated that the strong jobs report could also be a boon for the U.S. economy at large. “The report helps further quell worries that the U.S. economy is teetering toward recession and helps affirm the assessment from most Federal Reserve officials,” according to the publication.
This comes just as central bank leaders touted the strength of the U.S. economy in recent days, as reported by CNBC. “The Fed earlier this week lowered its benchmark interest rate a quarter point, the third such move this year, but Chairman Jerome Powell clearly indicated that this likely will be the last cut for some time unless conditions change significantly,” as noted by the publication.
“Overall the labor market is holding up very, very nicely,” said Michael Brown, principal U.S. economist at Visa, in an interview with Bloomberg. “There’s no signs here the consumer is losing any momentum.”
In terms of specific worker segments, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports there was little change in October among the major groups. According to the data, “the unemployment rates for adult men (3.2 percent), adult women (3.2 percent), teenagers (12.3 percent), Whites (3.2 percent), Blacks (5.4 percent), Asians (2.9 percent), and Hispanics (4.1 percent) showed little or no change in October.”
Broken down by industry, there were job gains in food services, social assistance, and financial activities. “In October, food services and drinking places added 48,000 jobs. Job growth in the industry has averaged 38,000 over the past 3 months, compared with an average monthly gain of 16,000 in the first 7 months of 2019,” according to the BLS. Meanwhile, social assistance saw a 20,000 increase in October, while financial activities employment rose by 16,000.
Other sectors to see growth were professional services, which increased by 22,000 jobs for the month, and healthcare, which saw a 15,000 increase.
Two industries saw decreases, however, according to BLS data: “Manufacturing employment decreased by 36,000 in October. Within manufacturing, employment in motor vehicles and parts declined by 42,000, reflecting strike activity.” According to Bloomberg, this was a huge drop. “Manufacturers subtracted 36,000 jobs, the biggest drop since 2009, though it would likely have been a gain without the effects of the strike. Still, even excluding the impact of the walkout, the sector has become increasingly fragile amid slowing global growth, a strong dollar and an ongoing trade war with China,” as noted by the publication.
Meanwhile, “federal government employment was down by 17,000 over the month, as 20,000 temporary workers who had been preparing for the 2020 Census completed their work,” according to the report.
Employment Summary for September 2019
The September Employment Situation showed a total nonfarm payroll job increase of 136,000, which is slightly higher than the August report that saw a 130,000 raise. However, this number notably failed to meet estimates, according to numerous media reports.
“Private payrolls expanded by 114,000 after an upwardly revised 122,000 advance the prior month, according to a Labor Department report Friday that missed the median estimate of economists for a 130,000 gain,” reported Bloomberg. Interestingly, about 1,000 of those jobs were due to temporary government workers being hired in order to prepare for the upcoming Census.
In terms of the job increase estimates, Bloomberg calculated that economists “had projected 145,000 new jobs with the unemployment rate remaining at 3.7% and average hourly earnings rising an unchanged 3.2%.”
In some good news, though, the unemployment rate actually declined to 3.5%. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, “The last time the rate was this low was in December 1969, when it also was 3.5 percent.” The report continues, “Over the month, the number of unemployed persons decreased by 275,000 to 5.8 million.”
“Overall it is a bit of a mixed bag,” Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank Securities chief economist, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
CNBC reported that the job report showed more important job gains: “A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed also fell, declining 0.3 percent points to 6.9%, matching its lowest in nearly 19 years and just off the all-time low of 6.8%.”
Interestingly, the latest jobs data may not mean much in terms of cuts to the Fed interest rate, according to CNBC. “While the low unemployment rate is one sign of economic strength, the weakness in wage growth shows that the central bank remains a good distance from its goal at maintaining an inflation rate around 2%,” as the news services reports.
In an interview with CNBC, Gad Levanon, the North America chief economist at The Conference Board, said: “Overall, this report provides more evidence that the labor market is still healthy and does not necessarily increase the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the remainder of the year.”
And specific demographics also saw strong unemployment growth, according to the publication. As CNBC reported, “The jobless rate for Hispanics also hit a new record low, while the level for African Americans maintained its lowest ever.”
However, while there were some inroads for certain segments of the population, there were some problems with wage growth, according to the latest BLS report. “Wages were a disappointment, with average hourly earnings little changed over the month and up just 2.9% for the year, the lowest increase since July 2018,” as CNBC noted.
Meanwhile, when looking at the specific industries that saw the most job growth, the BLS data showed that the healthcare industry led the way. According to the report,“In September, healthcare added 39,000 jobs, in line with its average monthly gain over
the prior 12 months. Ambulatory healthcare services (+29,000) and hospitals (+8,000) added jobs over the month.” Additionally, employment in professional and business services also saw an increase, raising 34,000 jobs for the month of September.
But the retail industry took the biggest hit in job gains over the course of the month, according to the report. “Retail trade employment changed little in September (-11,000). Within the industry, clothing and clothing accessories stores lost 14,000 jobs, while food and beverage stores added 9,000 jobs. Since reaching a peak in January 2017, retail trade has lost 197,000 jobs.”
Other industries, such as mining, construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, information, financial activities, and leisure and hospitality, didn’t see much growth or declines in September.
Employment Summary for August 2019
The August Employment Situation showed a nonfarm payroll employment increase of 130,000, which comes off the heels of a higher increase of 164,000 jobs for July. Notably, this missed estimates by economists and media publications that predicted higher job growth for the month.
More specifically, CNBC reported that Wall Street estimates suggested there would be an increase of 150,000 jobs. Along with that, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%, which was expected. In fact, according to the BLS report, unemployment has stayed stagnant “for the third month in a row, and the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 6.0 million.”
The numbers also missed Bloomberg’s estimates. “Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected 160,000 new nonfarm jobs with unemployment at 3.7% and annual wage gains at 3%,” according to the news publication.
These estimates of added roles, however, are lower than the average for the year. The BLS report states, “Job growth has averaged 158,000 per month thus far this year, below the average monthly gain of 223,000 in 2018.”
Meanwhile, there are signs that U.S. workers are growing increasingly unhappy. According to the news publication, “An alternative measure of the jobless rate, which includes discouraged and underemployed workers, increased to 7.2% from 7% in July, due mainly to a 397,000 increase in those working part-time for economic reasons.”
When examining the breakdown of demographics within the unemployment rates, the BLS reported the following: “Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.4 percent), adult women (3.3 percent), teenagers (12.6 percent), Whites (3.4 percent), Blacks (5.5 percent), Asians (2.8 percent), and Hispanics (4.2 percent) showed little or no change in August.”
Meanwhile, when looking at the industries that saw the highest amount of job growth in August, a large chunk of the job gains was due to temporary hiring for the Census, as pointed out in the BLS data. The Federal Government, for example, hired 25,000 workers for the Census, and added 28,000 workers total for the month.
Beyond this, the healthcare industry showed growth with the industry adding 24,000 jobs over the month and 392,000 over the past 12 months, according to the data. Meanwhile, “employment continued to trend up in ambulatory healthcare services (+12,000) and in hospitals (+9,000).”
Financial services employment rose by 15,000 in August, while professional and business services saw an increase of 37,000 for the month.
In terms of declines, mining employment fell by 6,000 for the month while retail fell by -11,000.
According to Bloomberg, the jobs report illustrated how “hiring stumbled in August, which “likely cement[s] expectations for a second straight Federal Reserve interest-rate cut as trade uncertainty and softer global growth weigh on the outlook.”
But MarketWatch suggested that the August numbers always paint a more dismal picture than typically. “The increase in new jobs fell well short of the 170,000 MarketWatch forecast, but August employment figures often miss Wall Street’s initial target because so many vacationing business people turn in the surveys late,” according to the publication.
Taking a look at how wages changed for the month, MarketWatch reported that there was some good news for workers. “The average wage paid to American workers rose 11 cents, or 0.4%, to $28.11 an hour.” However, taking a look at the 12-month rate showed that wage “gains dipped to 3.2% from 3.3%,” although “hours worked each week rose 0.1 hour to 34.4.”
The July Employment Situation showed a nonfarm payroll increase of 164,000, which comes off the heels of a stronger increase of 224,000 roles from the month prior. This number nearly matched projections by various media outlets and was “in line with average employment growth in the first 6 months of the year,” according to the report.
Notably, the 164,000 payroll increase almost met the estimated 165,000 increase by the Dow Jones forecast, according to CNBC. Meanwhile, the number was somewhat lower than MarketWatch’s forecast of 171,000. However, the figure was lower than 2018 job increases, which saw employment gains at an average of 223,000 per month.
According to Bloomberg, the addition of jobs for the month illustrated a “healthy pace,” while wages saw an increase. “U.S. employers kept adding workers at a healthy pace in July and wage gains picked up, underlining a solid labor market ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve interest-rate cut and President Donald Trump’s threat to ratchet up tariffs on Chinese goods,” noted the news service.
However, MarketWatch painted a less optimistic picture of wage gains based on this month’s jobs report. “The lowest unemployment rate since the late 1960s, however, is not generating the kind of wage increases workers used to receive when the labor market was so tight,” according to the publication. “Wage gains appeared to have topped out at just slightly above 3% a year,” which continued that “wages typically rose as much as 4% a year when unemployment was extremely low.”
Interestingly, the amount of income earned by the average worker saw a boost of “8 cents to $27.98 an hour in July,” per MarketWatch. “The increase in pay in the past 12 months edged up to 3.2% from 3.1%, but it’s still below a post 2008 recession peak of 3.4%.”
Overall, the jobless rate stayed the same at 3.7%, which marked a half-century low, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, meaning the number of unemployed individuals remained unchanged at approximately 6.1 million individuals. However, according to CNBC, economists forecast the jobless rate to shrink further to 3.6%.
“Economists had expected the unemployment rate to drop to 3.6%, which would have tied a 50-year low,” according to the publication, “but an influx of 370,000 new workers to the labor force brought the participation rate up to 63%, its highest since March.”
The publication also noted that the total labor force of 163.4 million U.S. workers is a “new record.”
Looking at a breakdown of the industries that saw the highest amount of job growth in July saw notable gains in professional and technical services, according to the BLS. Both industries saw a boost of 31,000 jobs. This increase brought “the 12-month job gain to 300,000” in the industry, according to the BLS data.
Meanwhile, healthcare saw a 30,000 increase and social assistance rose by 20,000. For the year, there have been over 405,000 new jobs in the industry. Finally, financial activities saw an increase of 18,000 jobs with most positions being in insurance roles. Interestingly, despite continued U.S. and China trade tensions, the manufacturing industry saw an increase of 20,000, although there have been fears that there would be a slowdown in the coming days.
But not all industries saw boosts in July. As the news service noted, mining saw a 5,000 drop. Additionally, employment fell yet again for retailers as well as jobs in media and information services, according to the BLS report.
The jobs report, meanwhile, comes at an important time for the future of the U.S. economy, according to CNBC. “The report comes amid worries that the U.S. economy could slide into recession in 2020, owing to a weaker global outlook and worries over the escalating trade war with China,” according to the news service. “Federal Reserve officials voted Wednesday to cut their benchmark interest rate a quarter percentage point, citing the global slowdown as well as concerns over weak inflation.”
“This is a report that is status quo for the Fed,” Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale told Bloomberg in an interview. “I think the focus is going to be on all the other events and the rhetoric around tariffs going forward.”
Employment Summary for June 2019
The June Employment Situation showed a large increase in nonfarm payroll employment to the tune of 224,000 new jobs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This comes off the heels of a growth reduction for May’s figures which saw just 75,000 jobs added, which was the only month in 2019 (since February) to fall short of six-figure growth.
According to Bloomberg, U.S. hiring rebounded and topped all economists’ estimates, “a sign of labor-market strength that may ease calls for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut.”
Notably, the number of additional jobs signified a huge boost when compared to Bloomberg’s estimate, which was based on economists projections of 160,000 new jobs versus the 224,000 reported.
Interestingly, employment job growth has averaged 172,000 per month for 2019, according to the report, which is lower than the average monthly gain of 223,000 in 2018.
Reuters, however, reported that while job growth has rebounded from a weak May, “moderate wage gains and mounting evidence that the economy was slowing sharply could still encourage the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this month.”
On that note, the jobless rate ticked up slightly to 3.7%, which is slightly above the half-century low of 3.6%. Meanwhile, earnings increased 3.1% from a year earlier, which is slightly less than Bloomberg projected.
Additionally, the average wages paid to U.S. workers saw an increase of 6 cents to $27.90.
One industry that unsurprisingly saw significant job growth in June is professional and business services. As in previous months, the sector saw the largest number of jobs added in June (51,000). Notably, however, this was up from a much smaller employment change in May of only 24,000 positions added for the industry.
Others industries added a noteworthy amount of jobs throughout the month included the healthcare industry which saw an increase in 35,000 roles for the month. Transportation and warehousing also added 24,000 jobs and construction saw an upward trend of 21,000 newly added positions. Meanwhile, there were an additional 17,000 manufacturing jobs for the month.
Other major industries saw little notable employment growth including mining, wholesale trade, retail trade, information, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, and government.
Taking the report as a whole, news services came to different analyses of what this month’s report could mean for the U.S. economy as a whole. Bloomberg, for instance, stated that the report could bolster U.S. President Donald Trump’s ideas about the strength of the economy.
“The report may offer President Donald Trump another chance to boast that the world’s largest economy is in the best shape ever,” according to Bloomberg. However, this also comes as Trump has repeatedly called for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to slash interest rates, which is coming “just as the 2020 campaign begins.”
“It’s a really, really strong report across the board,” Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank chief economist, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “If the Fed is thinking about making insurance cuts, you think about what they are insuring themselves against?”
According to MarketWatch, “Even though the economy has slowed, the strongest labor market in decades is likely to extend what’s already the longest expansion on record. The U.S. has grown for 121 straight months.”
Looking ahead, the news service notes that while there has been continued economic growth for the U.S., according to this report, simmering trade tensions between the U.S. and China “could hurt the economies of both countries and cause a global downturn. Businesses have complained for months that trade disputes have hampered their ability to plan and invest.”
That said, just last week, the two countries agreed to table the pending tariffs and begin negotiations again.
Employment Summary for May 2019
The stretch of economic good fortune the U.S. has experienced for much of 2019 has shown some signs of cooling off in recent weeks. Numbers from the latest edition of the Employment Situation Summary compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics appear to represent more evidence of this growth reduction: American nonfarm payroll organizations added 75,000 jobs in May, making it the first and only month in 2019 since February to fall short of six-figure growth.
Economists expected much better of the latest numbers: Bloomberg’s survey of market experts had called for an increase of 175,000 jobs, while a similar poll conducted by Reuters projected the U.S. labor force to add 185,000 new workers to its ranks. By comparison to the previous month, May is even more of a surprising decline in job growth, as April saw 227,000 new employees added to American payrolls (downwardly revised from an initial figure of 263,000).
The unemployment rate, meanwhile, held fast at 3.6 percent – which, as Bloomberg noted, is the lowest number seen for this metric in 49 years.
Industries that saw significant job growth in May should be no surprise to anyone who has followed the BLS’s reports during the last two years: Professional and business services added 33,000 jobs during the month, while healthcare organizations saw their total employment edge up by a margin of 16,000.
Construction was the only other sector of the U.S. economy to add jobs at a level that the BLS considered high enough to deem statistically significant, with businesses in this field bringing on 4,000 new workers during May.
No other industries added or lost any noteworthy number of jobs. However, digging a bit further into the various charts that display the raw employment data in a number of different contexts, yields a few other notable facts: Manufacturing was just behind its fellow blue-collar sector (construction) with a tepid addition of 3,000 jobs. Also, government agencies saw their ranks decrease by 15,000 across the U.S.
Michael Feroli, the chief U.S. economist for JPMorgan Chase & Co., offered a fairly dim assessment of the latest BLS data in an interview with Bloomberg.
“It definitely looks like we’ve downshifted in the pace of job growth,” Feroli told the business news provider. “Overall it’s a disheartening report particularly since you may have some trade effects there, but a lot of the trade tensions escalated [since mid-May].”
The BLS almost always uses data collected at the halfway point of each month as the backbone of its assessments, and May was no different. Trade disputes between the U.S. and several nations, most notably China and Mexico, heated up at breakneck speed in the final weeks of May, so it’s possible that we won’t see numbers indicating the extent of these events’ impact on job growth until the BLS’s June report comes out.
Year-over-year wage gains slowed down slightly to 3.1 percent in May, underperforming April and March (both of which saw 3.2 percent year-on-year upticks). Also, the payroll diffusion index, a metric in the BLS report that isn’t always cited by the media but has considerable significance due to its measure of hiring’s breadth across multiple private-sector industries, fell to 54.8 percent in May from April’s figure of 59.9 percent. Payroll diffusion as of May 2019 is well below its 67.1 figure from a year ago, which some economists view as evidence of adverse impact from the White House’s tariffs and trade disputes on American businesses.
Both Bloomberg and Reuters reported that business leaders across the private sector might consider the latest jobs numbers – as well as the impact from 25 percent tariffs on numerous Chinese goods, and the possibility of escalating import duties on Mexico in the weeks to come – reason enough to call for interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Whether the Fed agrees with them or not likely won’t be seen until early in 2019’s third quarter.
Employment Summary for April 2019
For the first third of 2019, the American economy has continued its winning streak. Job growth kept momentum in April that was in sync with the surge seen during March, after a decline in February that, by now, seems more like an anomaly than anything else. According to the latest edition of the Employment Situation Survey issued by the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payroll organizations in the U.S. added 263,000 new positions during April. This is over 70,000 greater than March’s addition of 189,000 jobs – a figure revised by the BLS from an initial 196,000 – and ahead of the economists’ polls conducted by Bloomberg and Reuters.
The unemployment rate fell to 3.6 percent, a low not seen since 1969. As noted by The Washington Post, conditions like these constitute what economic experts refer to as “full employment,” since businesses in the U.S. ultimately have more open jobs than there are unemployed people to take them. Joe Stagnaro, president of Pennsylvania operations for the trucking and warehouse firm McLane Company, commented on this in an interview with the Post.
“The economy is good, but that’s … difficult for employers,” Stagnaro told the news provider. “The people you want to hire are employed by someone else.”
He also said that his company was developing an on-site training program so that interested workers who weren’t yet qualified for trucking jobs could learn the necessary skills at no cost and eventually take open positions at McLane. The Post reported this and other internal talent development strategies are growing more common.
There was a slight month-to-month drop in the labor force participation rate from March to April, with this indicator falling to 62.8 percent, but since that number is identical to its total from April 2018, it isn’t considered alarming by the BLS.
Professional and business services beat out all other American industries in terms of hiring by a sizable margin last month, with a whopping 76,000 jobs added to its payrolls. Administrative and support was the biggest category within professional services jobs to see gains. The next-closest sector – construction – added 33,000 new roles. Healthcare also continued its steady trend of considerable growth in April, with organizations in the field bringing on 27,000 new personnel for open positions. Also noteworthy is the sizable jump seen in social assistance services, which grew by 26,000 last month after not showing any statistically significant growth or decline for at least the past 12 months. Lastly, the federal government added 12,500 workers, and the upcoming U.S. Census is likely to drive that total up.
Although manufacturing saw only minor growth (4,000 jobs) and retail trade lost 12,000 workers in April, these negative shifts were not nearly significant enough to derail the overall trend of growth.
Average hourly earnings rose 6 cents to $27.77 in April. Wages increased 3.2 percent on a year-over-year basis last month, unchanged from the year-on-year pace seen in March. However, when examined in conjunction with other economic indicators, it makes for a favorable assessment of current conditions. Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, elaborated on this in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
“[The report is] clearly telling you this economy is still chugging along very nicely. It is inflationary in the sense that wages did go up but they didn’t go up as much as we had expected. Goldilocks is the best description of this,” Slok said to the business news provider’s television channel, effectively calling the American economic status “just right.”
Employment Summary for March 2019
After a wild divergence in U.S. job growth during the first two months of 2019 – more than 300,000 in January and a mere 20,000 in February – March seemed much more in line with America’s average pace of labor-force expansion. According to the latest edition of the Employment Situation Survey issued by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payroll organizations in the U.S. across all industries added 196,000 jobs in March. This figure reasonably outperformed the expectations of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who had expected the addition of 177,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the country’s unemployment rate held steady at 3.8 percent, in line with previous months during this latest period of American expansion.
Bloomberg stated that a number like this could be a solid indicator of what economic experts around the world have debated for at least the past year – namely, just how sustainable the pace of U.S. job growth really is. According to the financial news provider, job gains throughout the near future will likely be more in line with March’s number than with the massive swells seen numerous times during 2018 (multiple instances of 250,000 or more jobs added), but still strong enough to help fuel broader economic growth.
The healthcare industry greatly outpaced all other American sectors in terms of roles created during March, with 49,000 new jobs coming onto the payrolls of hospital systems, ambulatory healthcare services and other organizations in the field. Professional and business services came in second with a total of 34,000 new positions, while food service and drinking establishments added 27,000 jobs. Computer systems design and services, a sector that has seen little major expansion or contraction during these past years of American growth, saw a notable uptick of 12,000 jobs.
On the other end of the spectrum, construction added 16,000 jobs this month – not nearly enough to recover from its loss of more than 30,000 workers during February. Additionally, while BLS considered both the manufacturing sector’s loss of 6,000 jobs in March and its gain of 1,000 roles in February as equivalent to having “changed little,” some may find these figures worth noting due to the major role that manufacturing’s growth played in America’s economic expansion over the past two years. Any major positive or negative fluctuations in the months to come will likely draw considerable attention.
Average hourly earnings grew 3.2 percent year-over-year in March, slightly below the market’s expectations and also down from February’s gain of 3.4 percent. However, the overall strength of the labor market should still fuel healthy consumer spending and keep inflation low. The latter is undoubtedly unfavorable to some, but directly in line with the goals of the Federal Reserve, which seeks to monitor the efficacy and substance of American economic strength in the midst of trade tensions and difficulties in numerous global markets.
Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale SA, elaborated on this during a live interview with Bloomberg Television.
“This a perfect report for the Fed because it actually corroborates what they’ve been saying all along, which is there are no wage pressures,” Rajappa told the news service. “There’s very little risk of wage inflation.”
Rajappa and many economists in similar positions (both domestically and around the globe) expect the Fed to reduce federal benchmark interest rates in the near future, moderating the rapid pace of rate hikes seen during 2018. Global trade tensions are considered a likely cause of this.
In fact, the relationship between the U.S. under President Donald Trump and various major economies continues to represent the biggest potential hurdle for the American market, which is otherwise strong, in the coming months. After threatening to close the country’s border with Mexico in late March due to his concerns about illegal drugs and immigration, Trump changed his mind April 4, according to The Washington Post: Instead, he said he’d impose major economic sanctions on the U.S.’s third-largest trading partner in exactly one year if the Mexican government doesn’t address border-security issues to his satisfaction. The president’s intensity regarding these matters has created bipartisan concern about a border closing or restriction’s effects on trade.
On the other hand, the South China Morning Post reported that negotiations between China and the U.S. to end their trade war are improving. President Trump met Vice-Premier Liu He, China’s leading trade negotiator, at the White House April 4 and said a deal that relaxed tariffs on both sides could be finalized within the next four weeks.
Employment Summary for February 2019
The past year of economic growth in the U.S. undoubtedly galvanized expectations among the country’s political and business leaders regarding what the early months of 2019 would bring. Although January brought a massive infusion of new jobs among multiple sectors of the American economy – 311,000 positions, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics – several early indicators of February’s economic growth seem to suggest that such voluminous growth, like what the country saw over the course of the last 12 months, simply may not be sustainable.
According to the latest edition of the BLS Employment Situation Summary, nonfarm payroll organizations in the U.S. added only 20,000 jobs in February 2019, a level of growth characterized by the BLS’s own press release as statistically insignificant. Also, the unemployment rate fell back to 3.8 percent after jumping from that level to an even 4 percent in January, an occurrence attributed to an uptick in Americans actively looking for work. Other major indicators cited in the report were more positive, particularly wage growth, which experienced a higher-than-expected jump to 3.4 percent on a year-over-year basis.
Bloomberg, which conducted its usual survey of prominent economists prior to the BLS data’s release, reported that these experts had predicted a solid expansion figure of 180,000 new jobs for the month, which exemplifies how unexpected February’s actual jobs number was.
The industries that saw the biggest surges in their labor forces during February should be no surprise to those who have kept track of the American employment numbers over the past few years: Professional and business services added 42,000 jobs, while healthcare organizations brought on 21,000 new workers. Both of these sectors have more often than not been well ahead of the pack, by comparison to their contemporaries, from 2017 to January 2019. Wholesale trade also saw a solid bump with 11,000 jobs added to payrolls of firms throughout the industry. Manufacturing gained 4,000 jobs – not a gain to dismiss but possibly disappointing to company leaders by comparison to previous months.
Construction took a considerable bite out of overall U.S. labor-force growth during February, due to its loss of 31,000 jobs. The BLS report attributed this loss in large part to a plunge in the specialized field of heavy and civil engineering construction, but the sector saw declines in all of its segments. Given the giant leap forward construction experienced in January (53,000 new jobs), the scope of the latest month’s drop-off remains surprising even if colder weather in much of the country, rather than poor conditions for the industry, undoubtedly caused some of it.
While the slowdown of job growth may not be reason for American government officials, company leaders and employees to worry about its implications for the future of the economy, the combined force of this indicator and other recent trends in U.S. macroeconomic variables represents enough for all of those individuals to keep a close eye on things moving forward. According to The Washington Post, the Department of Commerce revealed 2018’s trade sales figure March 6: an $891.2 billion deficit, larger than any ever before seen in the U.S. This constitutes a major setback for President Donald Trump, who often promised in his successful campaign that import tariffs and a strong commitment to American industries would strengthen the economy and cut down on the trade deficit.
William Reinsch, a former Commerce Department official now working with the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, described the issue succinctly in an interview with the Post: “Macroeconomics end up ruling,” he told the news provider. “You can’t wish it away. You can’t tariff it away.”
Much of the immediate American economic future may be decided if and when Trump finalizes a pending deal with President Xi Jinping of China, which the Post reported may happen very soon. The Chinese chief executive enacted attritional tariffs in response to Trump’s policies, making both leaders responsible for numerous direct and indirect disruptions to global trade. The potential deal would have China buy back $1.2 trillion in American products over the next six years, reduce the burden of tariffs on both sides and institute various regulations to protect each country’s trademarked goods.
According to CNBC, inflation-related data is being monitored closely by Federal Reserve policymakers, particularly with regards to wages. Decisions regarding future interest rate hikes will be pushed out as officials from the Central bank continue to watch the data.
Employment Summary for January 2019
The first month of 2019 picked up where 2018 left off in terms of job growth in the U.S., with the number of nonfarm payroll jobs added by American businesses surpassing the strong figure seen last December: Per data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest Employment Situation Summary, U.S. organizations brought on 304,000 new workers in January. CNBC reported that a Dow Jones survey of economic experts initially expected about 170,000 jobs added.
While this is slightly below the total of 312,000 originally reported for December 2018, the newest report revised that month’s gains down to 222,000 and brought November’s comparatively modest figure of 170,000 up to 190,000. Although the unemployment rate rose marginally between December and January – from 3.9 to 4 percent – this was attributed to a surge in the number of Americans actively looking for work, rather than any troublesome trend.
Additionally, the partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government turned out to not affect overall employment to any statistically significant degree – beyond an 11 percent jump in the number of underemployed persons (those working part-time out of economic necessity). With that said, it’s worth noting that the BLS considered those who worked without pay or had been furloughed during the shutdown to have been fully employed, because their last paycheck came January 12, 2019, which was within the survey week for the report. As such, any full accounting of the shutdown’s economic effects (or lack thereof) on the economy remains unknown, and there is still the potential for another shutdown in a few weeks, considering that the bill to reopen the government only included appropriations lasting until February 15.
The leisure and hospitality industry led all other U.S. employment sectors in jobs added during January by a significant margin. Its massive gain of 74,000 positions was fueled not only by food and drink services but also by new opportunities in amusements, gambling and recreation. Construction came in second place with 52,000 new jobs created across all of its employment subcategories, and healthcare was not too far behind with an addition of 42,000 positions.
Several other sectors also experienced notable surges in job creation, such as the dependably strong professional and business services industry, which added 30,000 new positions to its payrolls across the U.S.
Transportation and warehousing increased almost as much with the creation of 27,000 new roles. Rounding out sectors with noteworthy professional additions were retail trade, manufacturing and mining, which brought on 21,000, 13,000 and 7,000 new workers, respectively. No other industries saw their labor forces rise or fall by any empirically significant level.
There were a few less positive indicators found within the latest BLS report. Wage growth, for example, was somewhat slower than expected, with a 3 cent increase in the average American hourly wage representing growth of just 0.1 percent – under the 0.3 percent predicted by various economists. On a year-over-year basis, earnings have grown 3.2 percent between January 2018 and 2019.
Some business leaders may also find themselves perturbed by the sudden switch to a cautious stance by the Federal Reserve, characterized by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s January 31 statement that the central bank would not raise its key interest rate to start the year. According to NPR, Powell cited factors including the impending upheaval of Brexit and various trade disputes around the globe – including the arguments between the U.S. and China – as motivations for the Fed’s decision. Regardless of the Fed’s position, the economic picture for the U.S. at the start of the new year is undoubtedly positive.
Employment Summary for December 2018
U.S. job growth experienced an unprecedented uptick in December, with employers adding approximately 312,000 nonfarm positions throughout the month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ most recent Employment Situation Summary. Market analysts anticipated a spike of sorts following the underwhelming employment figures recorded in November, during which time American businesses added just 176,000 roles, per revised numbers from the BLS. However, most anticipated an increase of around 180,000 jobs, The New York Times reported.
The BLS attributed the startling job growth observed in December to strong gains in the food and beverage, construction, healthcare, manufacturing and retail industries.
Healthcare boasted the biggest hiring increase, with organizations in the sector adding 50,000 jobs. This capped off a banner recruitment year in the healthcare industry, which managed to add 346,000 positions in 2018, a significant increase over the 284,000 roles it added in 2017. Businesses in the food and beverage arena added 41,000 roles in December, pushing its annual total to 235,000. The construction sector managed to tack on 38,000 jobs in the month, vaulting its annual figure to 280,000, a slight improvement on the 250,000 new roles that materialized in 2017. The manufacturing space added 32,000 positions in December, as firms specializing in durable goods, metal fabrication and electronics niches flourished. This pushed yearly hiring figures to 284,000, a far cry from the 207,000 new jobs added in 2017. Retailers added 24,000 jobs during the month of December, with merchandisers and car dealers doing the bulk of the recruitment. The retail industry established 92,000 new roles in 2018.
Employment in the expansive professional and business services sector also increased over the month. Here, employers added 41,000 jobs, bringing the annual count to 583,000, an improvement over the 458,000 new positions created in 2017.
Job growth across a smattering of other industries, including the financial services, logistics, mining and warehousing spaces, was flat for December.
While the hiring situation improved over the final month of 2018, unemployment rose, moving from 3.7 percent to 3.9 percent. The BLS linked this jump to increased rates of joblessness among adult men and African Americans. The population of job leavers ballooned in December, as an estimated 142,000 Americans handed in their two weeks over the month, adding further fuel to the fire. Unemployment rates for adult women, teenagers, individuals of Asian descent and Caucasians remained stable. In all, the U.S. unemployment rate fell from 4.1 percent to 3.9 percent in 2018, continuing more than a decade of workforce growth.
The labor participation rate and employment population ratio saw little change in December, hovering near 63 percent and 60 percent, respectively. Both metrics increased by 0.4 percent in 2018.
Despite these encouraging numbers, many investors remain skeptical of American economy due to recent marketplace turbulence, The Times reported. Additionally, the Federal Reserve appears to be taking its time contemplating a next interest rate hike after four were seen in 2018. According to USA Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank “will be patient” as it weighs future interest rate hikes in light of low inflation, adding that policymakers will also take into account recent stock market volatility.
However, economists and labor market analysts are not so concerned heading into the new year, as the U.S. employment situation continues to improve.
Employment Summary for November 2018
The spirited pace of job growth that the U.S. reached in October turned out to be unsustainable for November: In its latest edition of the Employment Situation Summary, the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed a total of 155,000 nonfarm payroll jobs created for the month, a decline of almost 100,000 from October’s numbers. NPR pointed out that November’s figure was considerably below the 190,000 new jobs economists had projected during the month. Alongside some other signs of uncertainty – major stock-market fluctuations during the week of Dec. 3 and projections from regional Federal Reserve offices that were all over the map in terms of outlook – the newest BLS statistics could spark some concern about a broader slowdown in the American economy.
At the same time, other November metrics were more indicative of a chance for stability: The unemployment rate held static at 3.7 percent for the third consecutive month, year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings remained at October’s respectable level of 3.1 percent and the labor force participation rate stood at 62.9 percent.
Healthcare and professional services tied for first place in terms of November’s biggest employment producers, each creating 32,000 new jobs. Given the way 2018 has turned out for both of these sectors, such growth can be considered par for the course. Manufacturing came in close behind those two fields, with a total of 27,000 new roles added to its practitioners’ payrolls, and transportation and warehousing created a more than respectable 25,000 jobs for the month.
The retail sector, meanwhile, was somewhat of a mixed bag: Although general merchandise stores and the BLS’s catch-all segment of “miscellaneous store retailers” saw big gains of 39,000 and 10,000 positions, respectively, business owners in a variety of more specific retail fields experienced five-figure job losses. Clothing and accessories shops in the U.S. had to drop 14,000 employees in November 2018, while electronics and appliance stores lost 11,000 jobs, as did sporting goods, hobby and book stores.
With the year’s end just around the corner, economists, company leaders and government officials are naturally starting to look at 2018 as a whole. Considering how so much of the year turned out, measurements like average monthly job growth will probably beat some of the strongest levels seen since 2016. Bankrate senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick commented on this in an interview with The Washington Post.
“Most measures of the U.S. economy have been holding up quite nicely,” Hamrick said, according to the news provider. “The question is: How much slowing is there on the horizon?”
There is no clear answer in sight for Hamrick’s question, due to several indicators of waning economic stability on both macro and micro scales: The Fed, which will convene Dec. 18-19 to formally decide on issuing an increase in benchmark interest rates, confirmed in its Dec. 5 Beige Book report that several districts saw tightening labor markets and shortages of skilled workers for specialized trades. (This will likely have little effect on whether the Fed hikes rates, though, which it is widely expected to do.)
While trade tensions have been a concern of economies around the world for at least the past half-year, November and early December 2018 showed more concrete signs of tariff-related impact on American businesses than previous months. According to NPR, Dec. 4 marked a 799-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, while Dec. 6 showed a 750-point plunge for most of the day’s trading before bouncing back to end on just a 79-point deficit. Drops that close together – both attributed to disputes between China and the U.S. – always rattle stock-market confidence and may not be cause for any sustained alarm, but other indicators could be more substantive, as noted by Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel, a global financial services firm.
“Trade tensions are starting to eat at business confidence,” Piegza said to the Post when asked about the trade conflicts. “We’ve seen a pullback in terms of investment. Businesses are starting to question whether they do want to take on that additional hire.”
Business owners in the U.S. still have plenty of reason to feel generally optimistic about the economy’s direction, as 2018’s progression thus far shows. That said, it will likely still be prudent to make contingency plans for the possibility of more concrete job-growth sluggishness in 2019, just to be on the safe side.
Job growth in October 2018 surpassed September’s numbers and economists’ projections for the month. In its Employment Situation Summary, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Nov. 2 that nonfarm payroll employment rose by 250,000 in October. This is significantly higher than Wall Street analysts’ prediction of 195,000, as reported by The New York Times. Michelle Girard, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets told The Times, “The underlying fundamentals of the labor market are still really bright, it’s really the strongest part of the broader economy at the moment.” October 2018 represented the 97th consecutive month of job growth in the U.S.
Hurricane Michael, which caused destruction in the northwestern region of Florida, had no recognizable impact on the national employment rates for October. However, jobless claims in Florida and Georgia rose by 10,000 following this storm’s landfall.
The unemployment rate did not change from September’s 3.7 percent. This number represents the lowest figure since December 1969. This amount, as well as the impressive job growth of the month, may influence American voters going into the upcoming midterm elections
The largest job growth statistic comes from an industry that suffered in September: leisure and hospitality. The sector rose by 42,000 jobs. This is a dramatic rise in comparison to September’s numbers, which were likely impacted by Hurricane Florence. Healthcare took second place in October, with the addition of 36,000 positions. This job growth occurred in a variety of settings, with 14,000 job gains in ambulatory health services, 13,000 in hospitals and 8,000 in nursing and residential care facilities. The professional and business services industry forfeited its previously first place standing when it gained 35,000 in October, a distinguishable drop from its job growth of 54,000 in September. With the fourth largest job growth in October, the manufacturing industry added 32,000 jobs, 10,000 of which occurred in the durable goods sector.
Employment in construction experienced an increase of 30,000 in October, a significant change from its rise of 23,000 in September. Transportation and warehousing displayed a slight expansion in October, with the creation of 25,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the mining industry remained stagnant, with an increase of 5,000 new jobs. Other industries, such as retail trade, wholesale retail, financial activities, government and information did not change significantly in October.
Average hourly earnings of all employees on private payrolls increased by 5 cents, or 0.2 percent, in October, rising to $27.30. This is indicative of a 3.1 percent increase over the past 12 months. It seems to be on-pace with the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, which increased by 2.3 percent from September 2017 to September 2018. The creation of jobs and all-time-low unemployment rate are impressive during this month. Business leaders, job seekers and economists in the U.S. should be pleased with the current state of employment.
As a result of the continually growing economy, interest rates from the Federal Reserve are likely to keep rising. A CNBC report stated, “Powell [Fed chairman] says we’re ‘a long way’ from neutral on interest rates, indicating more hikes are coming.” The CME Group provided a 75 percent probability of a rate hike by the end of 2018, likely in December.
Employment Summary for August 2018
August was a strong month for employers across most segments of the U.S. economy, particularly in the wake of a July performance that notably underperformed the expectations of economic analysts, businesses and governments alike. According to the latest Employment Situation Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, American nonfarm organizations in both the private and public sectors added 210,000 jobs to their workforces.
This figure stands well above the 147,000 new positions created in July (downwardly revised from an initial estimate of 157,000) and also exceeds the median prediction by Bloomberg-surveyed economists, who expected to see 190,000 jobs added during the month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held fast to its July figure of 3.9 percent (about 6.2 million unemployed persons actively looking for work) in August, and this did slightly fall behind the estimate of economic experts Reuters polled, who predicted a drop to 3.8 percent.
Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays, pointed out in an interview with The New York Times that figures such as these indicated some of the fears over international trade wars were, for now at least, somewhat overblown.
“What’s worth noting is that even though there still remains a lot of headline noise around politics and protectionism, underneath that, the U.S. economy – and that includes labor markets – is doing quite fine,” Gapen told the newspaper.
Professional and business services remained the top performer in terms of employment creation among American industries, adding 53,000 jobs during August. Healthcare came in second, with 33,000 new roles added, while construction and wholesale trade were nearly tied with their respective gains of 23,000 and 22,000 jobs. (By contrast to its wholesale counterpart, retail trade, after a few months of back-and-forth, didn’t see any major change in August).
There were some notable differences between the August and July reports in terms of industries showing statistically significant increases or declines. Transportation and warehousing, which has not risen or fallen much throughout 2018, saw a big jump of 22,000 new positions created in August. Mining also added jobs this past month after showing no significant movement in July, although these almost all came from mining support services, as has been the case for many of the previously reported increases within that particular field over the past year.
Some economists will see manufacturing’s decline in employment – a loss of 3,000 positions in August – as the biggest surprise in the BLS’s latest jobs report. Considering that the field added 37,000 jobs in July and 36,000 in June, as it has for nearly a year starting in 2017 and continuing through to 2018. Any drop counts as a notable negative change in light of a White House administration under President Donald Trump that repeatedly pledged to bring back manufacturing jobs – and also, with good reason, has cited economic gains as its biggest success. This could be attributable to a slight drop in the labor force participation rate, which fell 0.2 percent to reach 62.7 percent.
That said, a loss of 3,000 roles could easily be offset by even a relatively modest jobs gain for September.
The August BLS report also contained other significant positives. Wages grew by 0.4 percent when analyzed by average hourly earnings, rising 10 cents to reach $27.16. When looked at on a year-over-year basis, the gain is even more impressive – 2.9 percent between August 2017 and 2018.
Indications also exist of some trade tensions between the U.S. and other nations beginning to abate somewhat. CNN reported Aug. 28 that President Trump and outgoing Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto agreed on several adjustments to the North American Free Trade Agreement, most of them meant to ensure both nations were able to maintain strong involvement in auto manufacturing. Peña Nieto expressed hope that Canada would accept the revisions, which would further advance NAFTA renegotiation efforts. However, according to another Reuters report, Canada and America still remain at odds over several industries, most notably dairy, lumber, media and steel.
The job gains initially estimated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for June were recalculated from 213,000 to 248,000. As such, some economists consider the total increase in nonfarm payroll employment for July – 157,000 jobs – an even more significant decline from June’s numbers. Other analysts see it more as a regression to the mean: a more typical and sustainable pace of healthy job growth than the almost hyper-real gains that long stretches of 2017 and 2018 have seen.
That said, the July figure is considerably less than what some experts predicted: Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a mean increase of 193,000 jobs, while a similar questionnaire from Reuters came up with an average prediction of 190,000 new positions. The unemployment rate, by contrast, was widely expected to fall from June’s 4.0 percent – which it did, to reach 3.9 percent in July. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.9 percent.
Many of the industries that saw notable increases in positions added were the same between June and July: Professional and business services once again took the No. 1 spot, with 51,000 new positions created, while manufacturing took second place with 37,000 jobs added. Both of these sectors also saw a month-to-month uptick of exactly 1,000 jobs from June to July. Healthcare came in third again this July, but with stronger numbers than what was seen in June – 34,000 new roles created as opposed to 26,000 the month prior.
Food services and drinking places was a new addition to the list of statistically significant job gains, with 26,000 new workers added to its payrolls. Seasonal factors likely drove this, given the tendency of July and August to serve as primary vacation time. Construction and retail trade were the last two sectors to see any notable uptick in employment, with 19,000 and 7,000 jobs added, respectively.
No broad sector of the American economy experienced significant labor force decline, though retail’s gain would’ve been much greater if not for a loss of 32,000 positions in sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores. Clothing, general merchandise and food and beverage stores offset that drop with healthy job growth.
Speaking with Reuters, Omair Sharif, senior U.S. economist at the New York branch of the multinational bank Societe Generale, expressed a sentiment common among various experts: slight disappointment, tempered by broader optimism.
“The story is pretty much the same,” Sharif said to the news provider. “Job growth is still very strong. It’s still a disappointment on wages still with the unemployment rate this low. We are still fluctuating between 2.5 percent and 2.8 percent in year-over-year wage growth. The labor story hasn’t changed very much. Everything else looks pretty solid. We are just waiting for wages to accelerate. We can’t seem to budge out of this range.”
BLS figures show that wage growth increased from June to July, jumping from 5 to 7 cents in terms of additions to average hourly earnings – a 0.3 percent jump, as predicted by the economists Bloomberg surveyed. Measured year-over -year, it’s not quite as positive, with a 2.7 percent increase between July 2017 and 2018, identical to June’s year-on-year wage gain
The Federal Reserve increased federal benchmark interest rates in July, as expected, with many predicting another rate hike in September. Sharif cautioned against assuming this was “a done deal,” however, noting that the Fed will examine “more than just the labor market to determine further hikes.”
In big-picture terms, the U.S. economy remains considerably solvent, but this could change somewhat if trade tensions with other nations – especially China – become more intense.
The U.S. saw yet another considerable monthly surge in the size of its labor force in June 2018. According to the Employment Situation Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payroll across all American industries added 213,000 jobs during the month.
This is slightly less than May’s tally of 223,000 new positions, but a strong number exceeding the median figure projected by a Bloomberg survey of economic experts, who expected approximately 195,000 jobs added.
Although the unemployment rate rose from May to June – coming in at 4 percent after May’s remarkably low figure of 3.8 percent – many are attributing this to growth in the labor force participation rate, which most recently jumped 0.2 percent to reach 62.9 percent. This indicates an uptick in jobless individuals actively seeking work, particularly among prime-age workers (Americans between the ages of 25 and 54). Brookings Institution senior fellow Gary Burtless confirmed as much in an interview with The Washington Post.
“This trend has been well underway,” Burtless told the news provider. “We had a very, very long recovery from an extremely deep recession. It wasnt spectacularly fast, but it has been spectacularly long.”
The field of professional and business services stood well above other sectors of the U.S. economy in terms of increased employment for the month, adding a total of 50,000 jobs. Manufacturing saw the second largest gains, creating 36,000 new positions once again on the back of durable goods manufacturing. This smaller category of the field has reaped major overall benefits for the American manufacturing industry, in terms of both revenue and employment.
Healthcare – another consistent performer on the U.S. job market and general economy over the past few years – added 25,000 new positions to its labor force in June. Meanwhile, construction rounded out the group of sectors with five-figure job gains due to the 13,000 new roles it created, and mining was the only other industry with statistically significant employment growth for the month, adding 5,000 jobs altogether.
The only notable drop in total jobs for June occurred within the sector of retail trade – a loss of 22,000 positions. However, because this field of the American labor force added 25,000 jobs during May, any impact on the businesses within it would be minimal. Additionally, seasonal labor shifts, which are common in retail, are almost undoubtedly responsible for some of June’s job losses. This reduces the likelihood that the drop-off is the beginning of any alarming trend – though it’s too early to know all of the exact causes.
Speaking with Bloomberg, Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., offered a largely positive but nuanced take on the newest numbers from the BLS.
“This is a good job-creation number, but on the other hand we see still continued soft wage growth,” Feroli said. “It’s positive in the sense that we still have some capacity to grow above trend without triggering too much inflation worry.” He added that the Federal Reserve could interpret these indicators as reasons to maintain its current schedule of increases to federal benchmark interest rates, rather than expanding to four rate hikes for 2018 as many economists have anticipated.
Growth in average hourly earnings did slow somewhat during June, with the month’s 5 cent increase representing a 0.2 percent decline from May’s wage gains. Also, concerns persist among some American businesses regarding potential adverse effects of the recent U.S. tariffs on numerous imports, including $34 billion in new levies placed on goods from China as of July 6, 2018. Yet the full effect of those measures remains to be seen, and in the meantime, the American economy is in a positive place, as it has generally been for the past several years.
Nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. added 164,000 jobs in April 2018, according to the latest release of the Employment Situation Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While below expectations of just over 192,000 new jobs, this expansion of the labor force exceeded the previous month’s figures, even when accounting for upward revisions bringing the March total to 135,000 new positions as opposed to the original 103,000.
Additionally, the unemployment rate slid to 3.9 percent during April. Reuters reported that this new percentage represents the lowest unemployment figure seen since December 2000.
When unemployment fell to 4.1 percent more than six months ago, that contraction itself represented a near-record low and provided strong evidence of how robust the American job market has been in the last few years. The metric’s stability at this level for nearly half a year was arguably even more remarkable. As such, April’s added drop in the joblessness rate could back up some economists’ predictions that the second quarter of 2018 will feature better performance across multiple economic metrics than what was seen in the year’s first quarter.
Professional and business services led the pack in terms of job growth-producing industries, with 54,000 jobs added in April. No other sector even came close to this level of employment gains.
In the runner-up spot, manufacturing saw the creation of 24,000 roles, stemming in no small part from the continued strength of the durable goods production market. Healthcare, which has been the American economy’s brightest star almost without interruption for the past two years, also added 24,000 jobs. The mining industry rounded out April 2018’s contingent of fields with noteworthy job growth, with the creation of 8,000 positions. No other fields experienced any statistically significant addition or subtraction to their ranks of employed workers.
Feelings among economic analysts and business leaders regarding the overall American economic situation appear generally positive, if tempered by a number of tangential figures and factors. In a note released ahead of the report, Wells Fargo Securities senior economist Sam Bullard expressed this sort of guarded optimism.
“We believe the U.S. labor market remains on solid footing,” Bullard stated, according to the news provider. “That said, as labor market conditions continue to tighten and the pool of skilled workers on the sidelines continues to shrink, future monthly hiring gains are likely to slow from the current hiring pace.”
Numbers responsible for uncertainties regarding the labor market include the labor force participation rate, in which the BLS identified a slight decline, falling to 62.8 percent. Some economists consider this metric a better barometer of American employment due to its measurement of people who are actively working and its ability to account for individuals who’ve ceased seeking work in any measurable manner.
Lower than expected wage growth of 0.1 percent may also have contributed to any sense of unease experienced by company leaders, economic experts and workers.
On the other hand, Bloomberg reported that any further drop in the U.S. unemployment rate may prompt the Federal Reserve to view the figure as unsustainable in the long run, thus necessitating further hikes to federal benchmark interest rates – perhaps beyond the increases already expected to occur in 2018. The first of these is tentatively scheduled to take effect sometime in June. Also, expected surges in consumer spending and the possibility of tax cuts provide further hope of continuing overall positive performance across the American economy.
The pace of job growth in the U.S. slowed down somewhat during March 2018, by comparison to the month before. On a general level, indicators for this period continued to exemplify the sustained boom of the American economy. Nevertheless, some concerns exist among business leaders and economic experts regarding what the reduction in pace might signify, particularly for trade in the near future.
According to the latest edition of the Employment Situation Summary released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm businesses in the U.S. added 103,000 jobs. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, remained static at 4.1 percent for the sixth month in a row. This newest figure does represent a drop of some magnitude when placed next to the 326,000 positions (revised from a preliminary total of 313,000) that American companies created in February 2018. Bloomberg reported that it fell short of the median prediction issued by the financial news network’s economists, who thought the various industries of the U.S. would add 185,000 jobs.
Industries most responsible for the gains that did occur in March included professional and business services, healthcare, manufacturing and mining. The former led the pack with 33,000 jobs added, continuing on a growth path that has spanned 2018 thus far. Stemming largely from increased employment in the creation of durable goods, manufacturing created 22,000 positions, in another month of recovery for a field on the rise since 2017 after a few years of sluggishness. Healthcare also added 22,000 jobs, and mining rounded up the notable sector-by-sector expansions in employment for March with 9,000 new positions on its payrolls.
Construction and retail trade both experienced drop-offs in their payrolls, with 15,000 and 4,000 jobs lost, respectively. However, because these declines followed up considerable surges in February – the former added 65,000 jobs that month, while the latter created 47,000 – they should bring little to no detriment to either sector in the long run.
Wages for March 2018 went up 2.7 percent on a year-over-year basis, while average hourly earnings rose 8 cents between February and March of this year, BLS figures found. This increase is seen as one of the most positive figures in the latest Employment Situation Summary, as previous months in early 2018 and late 2017 saw static or slow wage rises despite all of the robust additions to companies’ labor forces. March also saw the year’s first hike of interest rates by the Federal Reserve – one of the initial actions by newly appointed Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The Washington Post reported that most concerns regarding the American economic picture center around the recent tariffs the White House imposed upon steel and aluminum imported to the U.S., leading to inventory shortfalls and rashes of abrupt materials purchases. The construction and manufacturing industries, which have historically used a considerable amount of foreign steel, could see impedance to their operations based on price fluctuations and other effects of trade disputes regarding these metals. In its latest Report on Business, the Institute for Supply Management cited respondents to its queries for elaboration on these matters:
“Accurate, long-term planning has become incredibly difficult, as distributors that historically held costs for at least 30 days are now, in some cases, committing to only seven days, as prices can change drastically in that time,” the ISM report stated.
However, the big picture of the U.S. economy is likely a fairly bright one due to wage gains and increases in figures like the labor force participation rate, which rose to 62.9 percent in March 2018. This increase represents an 0.2 percent uptick from the previous month and another positive step on the path toward pre-recession labor participation figures of 66 percent or greater.